During the European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair remained steady at around the 1.0770 mark, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline. However, trading activity is relatively subdued, with market participants likely observing Good Friday. The Euro is under pressure, with indications from European Central Bank (ECB) officials increasingly pointing towards a potential interest rate cut in June.
Adding to the downward momentum, the Euro faced further challenges following disappointing Retail Sales data from Germany. The latest monthly report revealed a substantial 1.9% decrease in retail sector sales for February, contradicting expectations of a 0.3% increase after a previous decline of 0.4%. Moreover, year-on-year Retail Sales experienced a notable decrease of 2.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.8% drop and the last decline of 1.4%.
ECB Eyes June Rate Cut
On Tuesday, Yannis Stoumaras noted a burgeoning agreement within the ECB regarding a potential rate cut slated for June. Adding to this sentiment, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy highlighted a swift downturn in core inflation, albeit at elevated levels. While Villeroy expressed confidence in attaining the ECB's 2% inflation target, he warned of escalating downside risks should the ECB refrain from implementing rate reductions.
Furthermore, ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta underscored the adverse effects of restrictive policies, citing their role in stifling demand and precipitating a sharp decline in inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the rise, inching closer to the 104.60 level, buoyed by recent data signaling robust annualized economic growth in the United States (US), primarily propelled by solid consumer spending trends. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by a notable 3.4%, exceeding market forecasts, which had anticipated a steady growth rate of 3.2%.
Concurrently, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) for the same period registered at 2.0%, marginally below both anticipated and prior figures, which stood at 2.1%.
ECB Rate Cut Consensus Grows
The bullish rhetoric emanating from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official further bolstered the strength of the Greenback. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks on Wednesday alluded to a potential postponement of interest rate reductions, citing robust inflationary metrics. With heightened anticipation, investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report scheduled for Friday.
As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, this report will provide invaluable insights and guidance regarding future monetary policy decisions.
In the March 25-28 Reuters poll, all 77 economists unanimously anticipated the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at its current level of 4.00% during the meeting scheduled for April 11. Furthermore, approximately 90%, or 68 respondents, predicted the inaugural rate reduction would occur in June. This aligns closely with market expectations and represents a notable increase in consensus compared to the previous month's survey results.
Opinions of Economists
Marco Valli, chief European economist at UniCredit, emphasized the ECB's clear indication that June is the most probable timeframe for the initial rate cut. However, he also underscored the significant uncertainty surrounding the subsequent trajectory of monetary policy adjustments, highlighting that the pace of easing will be entirely contingent upon incoming economic data.
"We think that the ECB will want to tread carefully, and we confirm our expectation there will be three 25bp rate cuts this year, one per quarter, followed by similar steps next year until a more neutral level is reached, probably in the 2% area", he added.
Economists' opinions regarding the scale of expected European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts this year are divided. Roughly half of the surveyed economists anticipate reductions totaling 100 basis points or more, while the other half predict cuts of 75 basis points or less.
Additionally, some experts suggest there may be fewer rate cuts than initially anticipated. Carsten Brzeski from ING emphasizes caution due to the current economic landscape. Recent business surveys show a rebound in economic activity in the eurozone, potentially influencing the ECB to take a wait-and-see approach despite modest growth projections for the year.