On Wednesday, the dollar was directionless and the euro was nearing its recent lows due to worries that a new French government might erode fiscal restraint and raise the debt risk premium for the whole euro zone.
Sterling increased in the meantime when data revealed that British service inflation was higher than anticipated.
Because U.S. markets are closed on Wednesday, there will probably be little trading activity during the day. The dollar fell overnight as U.S. retail sales indicated that the economy was still not doing well and that the Federal Reserve would soon be reducing interest rates.
The euro hit a 1-1/2-month low at $1.07 on Friday and was last 0.1% higher at $1.0753. The yield difference between German and French government debt, which is now used as a barometer for the likelihood of a budget crisis in the center of Europe, has narrowed somewhat since Monday but is still near the seven-year highs it reached last week.
EUR still unchanged?
Analysts also noted that the euro area bloc's financial stability was not seriously threatened by the single currency.
According to Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets at MUFG, the limited movement in forex compared to the shift in the OAT (French government bond yield) spread highlights that the reaction is more about reassessing fixed income risks.
Leader of National Rally (NR), Marine Le Pen, expressed her desire to live with President Emmanuel Macron and her respect for institutions. This statement set off expectations that NR might renounce financially burdensome promises if it were to win the elections in early July.
In order to prevent a "unwarranted and disorderly" widening of the yield spread, the European Central Bank may also purchase French bonds. Nonetheless, recent market turbulence was described as "not disorderly" by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane.
Regarding ongoing excessive budget deficits, the European Commission on Wednesday suggested disciplinary measures against France, Italy, and five other member states of the European Union. At 105.27, the dollar index was unchanged.
As per the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 65% chance that the Fed will start lowering rates in September, with reductions of almost 50 basis points anticipated this year.
Sterling increased by 0.10% versus the euro to 84.41 pence per euro and by 0.20% versus the dollar to $1.2732 following the release of British data indicating that underlying price pressures persisted.
Sanjay Raja, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank Research said that what matters now is how much stock the Monetary Policy Committee puts on the spot.
What matters now is how much stock the Monetary Policy Committee puts on the spot – and arguably backward-looking – data
Sanjay Raja
Markets priced in roughly a 25% chance of a rate cut by the Bank of England in August (2024), down from nearly half a percentage point prior to data, and 44 basis points of monetary easing in 2024.
On Thursday, the BoE will have its policy meeting. The Swiss Franc last decreased by 0.1% to 0.9503, having reached a seven-month high of 0.9475 against the euro.
Since the end of May, when the value of the single currency reached its highest point since April 2023—0.9930 per franc—it has continuously declined in relation to the Swiss franc.
Recalling a speech given by Jordan at the end of May, Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex strategy at Commerzbank, noted that some observers perceive this as a renewed threat of intervention or an implicit promise.
Some observers see this as a renewed threat of intervention or as an implicit put that (Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas) Jordan is offering to all market participants who hold long Swiss Franc positions, especially against the euro
Ulrich Leuchtmann
A weaker Swiss franc would probably increase inflation risks, according to Jordan, but the SNB "could counteract by selling foreign exchange." BofA anticipates that the SNB will declare its intention "to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary" and that it will implement its second 25 bps cut next week.
Following the central bank's rate decision on Tuesday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock sent out a hawkish message that contributed to the Australian dollar's 0.04% increase to 0.667 against the US dollar.
The sharp differences in interest rates between Japan and the U.S., in particular, continue to put pressure on the yen, which was little changed at 157.93 per dollar.
Although the Bank of Japan would proceed cautiously, analysts predicted that the bank would tighten its monetary policy soon.