Top-rated U.S. companies kickstarted the new year in the corporate bond market by raising over $29 billion in debt, capitalizing on investor expectations of future reduced interest rates.
Seeking to benefit from low Treasury yields and narrowing credit spreads, these firms primarily aimed to refinance a significant amount of debt set to mature this year and the next. Citi's research note highlighted that around $780 billion of bonds mature in 2024, with a further $1 trillion due in 2025.
Local companies such as Toyota Motor Credit and Ford Motor Credit, as well as European banks UBS, BNP Paribas and Lloyds Banking Group, were among the 16 companies that recently issued new bonds.
According to data from Informa Global Markets, bond syndicate desks anticipated an average of $63 billion in investment-grade bonds during the first week of the year. This figure exceeded the five-year average of $50 billion for the same period. Last year, 37 borrowers managed to raise $58 billion in the first week of the year.
Anticipated gross issuance for 2024 is projected to hit $1.3 trillion, up from the $1.2 trillion recorded in 2023. However, the estimated net new issuance after factoring in maturities, calls, tenders, and bond repurchases is expected to be approximately $475 billion, slightly lower than the nearly $500 billion observed last year.
"Strong seasonal performance during January is likely further strengthened this year by expectations for falling yields over the course of the year that will likely result in outsized demand in the early part of the year," said BMO Capital Markets' credit strategist Dan Krieter.
The surge in supply on Tuesday, coupled with the anticipated active January issuance, helped push U.S. Treasury yields, which have an inverse relationship with bond prices. The benchmark 10-year yields reached 3.944 percent, marking an eight basis point rise from the previous week, while the two-year Treasury yield also climbed eight basis points to reach 4.328 percent.
At the same time, U.S. companies have been turning to convertible bonds to lower interest costs. These bonds offer reduced rates without immediate shareholder dilution from issuing new stock. Analysts predict that this surge in convertible bonds, which allows bond conversion into shares at predetermined stock price levels, will likely persist throughout the year.
Convertible debt issuance surged by 77 percent to $48 billion last year, as reported by LSEG data. It became one of the few segments in capital markets that rebounded to pre-pandemic levels following the market downturn in 2022. Although 2023 issuance fell short of the record levels in 2020 and 2021, it exceeded the $34 billion average for the decade before 2019.
Market outlook and economic indicators
Factors like interest rate hikes, persistent inflation, concerns about a potential recession and market shocks played significant roles in shaping the bond markets throughout 2023. Many of these same factors are anticipated to continue to have a substantial impact on the markets in the coming year.
"Partly it's a correction and partly it's the market setting up first for supply,"
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. Rates Strategy at TD Securities.
The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate-hiking phase after maintaining unchanged rates in the last three meetings. Expectations point to potential rate cuts in 2024, with the Fed signaling an anticipation of three cuts. Although the timing remains unclear, economists project a potential cut as early as March.
However, despite these initial rate reductions, interest rates remain higher, sparking concerns regarding its impact on the economy. Observers were also concerned about the likelihood of the U.S. slipping into a recession this year.
Tuesday saw no release of pivotal data to measure the economy at the start of the year. Investors now await significant insights into the labor market's status throughout the week, starting with JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, followed by ADP's private payrolls report on Thursday, and concluding with December's jobs report on Friday.