The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve would end its interest rate hikes and potentially lower rates in the first half of 2024.
U.S. rate futures on Monday indicated an approximately 23 percent chance that the Fed might start loosening its monetary policy as early as March, as per the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The probability is higher in May, climbing to around 50 percent.
Investor expectations of rate cuts are evident in the bond market, with yields on longer-term bonds falling further below those on short-term ones. This inversion of the yield curve is often seen as a predictor of a recession, and investors believe the Fed will need to lower rates to boost economic growth.
Market participants now await a series of key events and data releases this week, which could significantly influence the trajectory of global interest rates.
Among the highlights are the postponed OPEC+ meeting, the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – and consumer price data from the eurozone and Australia. The market is also keeping an eye on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision and Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data.
Slipping greenback
The dollar index, a gauge of the currency's value against six major peers, declined 0.12 percent to 103.08, after closing at 103.20. This index is on track for a monthly decline of over three percent, its worst performance since November 2022.
This decline deepened after data revealed a steeper-than-anticipated drop in U.S. new home sales for October, plunging 5.6 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. September's sales pace was also revised downward to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units.
"Technically, the dollar index did enough damage over the last two weeks to really suggest a breakdown. So the dollar's heyday is done and we're now looking at a softer dollar."
Amo Sahota, Director at Klarity FX
The euro strengthened against the dollar, advancing 0.05 percent to $1.0959, extending its gains from the previous close of $1.0953. It is poised for its largest monthly increase in a year, up approximately 3.6 percent.
The currency remained broadly stable following ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments that while eurozone inflation pressures are easing, wage growth remains robust. This indicates that the ECB's battle to curb inflation is not yet over.
Sterling strengthened to $1.2633 after closing at $1.2625, touching a two-month high of $1.2644 earlier in the session. This extended its gains from last week, buoyed by data showing a surprise rebound in British business activity in November.
Against the yen, the dollar weakened to 148.24 as of writing. This marks a two percent decline for the U.S. currency in November, set to be its largest monthly drop since February.
Investors are now ramping up expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will soon begin unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy. More than half of economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate the BOJ to make its first move at its April meeting.
The Australian dollar soared to a three-month high against the U.S. dollar, reaching $0.6618. It edged up despite Australian retail sales data released on Tuesday morning (Australian time) revealing a decline from the previous month.
At the same time, the New Zealand dollar strengthened 0.3 percent to $0.6101 ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Market expectations suggest that the central bank will maintain its official cash rate at 5.5 percent for the fourth consecutive meeting.