This week is poised to be a crucial one for financial markets, as key events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the release of the jobs report and earnings reports from tech giants unfold.
Commencing on Tuesday, the Fed's two-day policy meeting is anticipated to provide insights into the central bank's plans for the spring. The latest policy decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday afternoon, with investors widely expecting the Fed to maintain interest rates within a range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent.
"At [this] week's meeting, we expect the [Fed] will turn to a neutral stance, conveying no bias to either tighten or ease at the subsequent meeting," wrote Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, in a note on Friday.
"We expect the forward guidance will be the main event next week, but there is also the rest of the statement to consider as well as the press conference."
Investors are anticipating remarks from Fed chair Jerome Powell in Wednesday's conference regarding the potential timing of rate cuts. The market narrative has undergone substantial changes since Powell's last appearance in December, with initial expectations of a March rate cut being scaled back due to stronger-than-expected economic growth.
Due to positive economic indicators, with inflation reaching its lowest levels in almost three years, many Wall Street economists believe that the Fed could initiate rate cuts in the near future.
According to Feroli, if Powell is committed to maintaining a restrictive policy until there's confidence in inflation's trajectory, it would signal the Fed's reluctance to lean toward rate cuts in March.
Jobs report, tech earnings
This week will also witness the release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday, a report instrumental in delineating labor market imbalances. This report tracks the ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals and is closely monitored by Powell.
The ratio, which peaked at two-to-one in spring 2022, has since narrowed to 1.4-to-one in November. Job openings have decreased from 12 million in March 2022 to 8.79 million in November. Despite this figure, unemployment remains at historic lows.
Economists predict a slight dip in job openings to 8.71 million for December. Analysts will also watch for any signs of a weakening job market in the layoffs and discharges data, which have stayed below pre-pandemic levels.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department will release the Employment Cost Index for Q4, a measure of labor costs for employers. Despite a steady decline throughout 2023, some economists believe that wage gains are still relatively high, not aligning with the Fed's two percent inflation target.
Employers increased spending on wages and benefits by 1.1 percent from July to September, a slight increase from the previous quarter. However, this figure is down from a 1.4 percent rise in Q1 2022. The Q4 ECI report is expected to show a one percent increase from Q3.
Moving to Friday, the January jobs report is anticipated to show a modest decrease in job additions with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.7 percent.
The week will also see earnings reports from major tech companies such as Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta, alongside 106 S&P 500 companies and six Dow components.
Stocks are currently near all-time highs, rebounding from a turbulent start to the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are up over two percent in January, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than one percent.