08 July, AtoZForex – Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and TD bank have provided their forecasts for US NonFarm employment report and Unemployment print. Market consensus is for 175k increase in NFP and 4.8% Unemployment rate.
Barclays June NFP forecast
For the June NFP forecast, “we expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 175k, private payrolls to increase by 170k, and government payrolls to rise by 5k,” Barclays projected.
A release close to the bank’s expectation would represent a rebound in labour market following the May NFP report after the Verizon strike. In addition, Barclays would look for employment to return in June given the conclusion of the strike prior to the survey week
Source: Barclays June NFP forecast (click to zoom in)
“We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.7%,” Barclays noted, adding “we expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y) and average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.4.”
Goldman Sachs NFP forecast
Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about the June employment data. The investment bank expects a rebounded in June NFP to +210k from just +38k in May. The scope for improvement in US labour market is beyond Verizon, as other market data have also looked encouraging.
However, “we expect a small increase in the unemployment rate to 4.8% after its three month decline in May,” Goldman Sachs added.
Lastly, the banks projects low month over month gain in average hourly earnings because of calendar quirks, but the year over year rate should edge higher.
TD bank June NFP forecast
The investment bank expects “the sharp downdraft in employment to partially reverse in June, with a forecasted increase of 175k jobs.”
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ought to increase to 4.8% from the low of 4.7% on account of an expected rebound in the labor force. This should more than offset the gains in household employment.
On the wage growth front, average hourly earnings forecast is for a gain of 0.2% m/m, resulting in increase in the pace of wage growth from 2.5% to 2.7% y/y supported by favorable base effects.
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