The dollar strengthened from over three-month lows on Wednesday after data revealed that the U.S. economy expanded more quickly in the third quarter than previously estimated.
On Thursday morning in Asia, the dollar index, which gauges the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, traded at 102.79. This figure is close to its lowest level since August 10, 102.46, which it touched on Wednesday. By Tuesday, the dollar index was down 3.7 percent in November.
Despite its increase, the greenback remained on track for its largest monthly decline since November 2022. This decline is fueled by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of next year.
The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 5.2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, exceeding initial estimates of 4.9 percent. It marks the fastest pace of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021.
"The GDP data helped the dollar a little bit. Investment was a little stronger, and that's a cyclical component," said Erik F. Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo in London, as quoted by Reuters.
In response to the robust GDP data, investors ramped up their expectations of a rate cut, increasing bets on interest rate reduction in March to nearly 50 percent, up from around 35 percent the previous day, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Markets are now looking forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's response to remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggesting a potential rate cut in the coming months. Waller's remarks sent U.S. bond yields, putting pressure on the dollar.
"If the Fed believes that the markets misinterpreted his comments or feel uncomfortable to the degree that financial conditions have eased, there's an opportunity with Powell to set the record straight," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi U.S. in Boston.
Before then, the market's attention is on Thursday's crucial personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report, a key gauge of U.S. inflation.
Weaker dollar against other currencies
The euro increased 0.10 percent to $1.0979, recovering from a dip to $1.0973, as German inflation eased to 2.3 percent year-on-year in November from three percent in October. Spanish inflation was also moderated.
Various currencies benefited from the declining dollar. Among the top performers are the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen, which represent contrasting positions on the "carry" trade spectrum.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.11 percent to $0.6162 after previously closing at $0.6151. It reached a four-month high of $0.6208 in the previous session. The Kiwi received a boost from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as it kept interest rates unchanged. However, the bank hinted at the possibility of future rate hikes.
Japan's yen, particularly sensitive to U.S. bond yields, strengthened on Thursday to 147.26 per dollar. It stays close to its two-and-a-half-month high of 146.675 per dollar it reached on Wednesday. Expectations that the Bank of Japan will soon end its negative rate policy have also helped to support the currency.
China's onshore yuan traded at 7.1326 per dollar after closing at 7.1426, its strongest closing price since June 16.
Handelsbanken Capital Markets forex and fixed income sales Cameron Willard said the greenback had continued declining throughout the first half of next year. However, he projected a potential reversal later in the year due to escalating geopolitical risks. This situation traditionally prompts investors to view the dollar as a safe haven to preserve their cash value in turbulent times.