Users can feed a “jailbreak” prompt to make AI tool ChatGPT calculate the probability of unusual crypto price scenarios, according to Coinbase head of business operations Conor Grogan.
Grogan posted a screenshot of his ChatGPT use on Sunday, showing that the chatbot said there was a 15 percent probability that Bitcoin would “fade to irrelevancy,” with its value plummeting over 99.99 percent by 2035.
https://twitter.com/jconorgrogan/status/1652666327402676224
The Coinbase executive ran a similar scenario with Ether, resulting in ChatGPT predicting a 20 percent chance that the token’s value would hit near-zero levels by 2035. As for Litecoin and Dogecoin, the chatbot predicted 35 percent and 45 percent of odds, respectively, for the altcoins to hit near zero in around two years.
Grogan previously used ChatGPT to assign odds to scenarios related to politics involving Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. He also asked the tool to predict events related to the impact of AI on humanity, extraterrestrial life and religion.
Grogan posted the prompt he gave to ChatGPT to build the probability tables, saying he had tested it more than 100 times to confirm its accuracy.
“I ran this prompt 100 times on a wiped memory GPT 3.5 and 4, and GPT would return very consistent numbers; standard deviation was <10 percent in most cases, and directionally it was extremely consistent,” Grogan said.
Regarding the prediction of crypto prices, Grogan said ChatGPT was a “big fan” of Bitcoin but remained “more skeptical” of altcoins.
https://twitter.com/jconorgrogan/status/1652666329684488193
In March, Grogan used GPT-4 to spot security weaknesses in Ethereum smart contracts. The chatbot can also provide an outline to take advantage of those faulty contracts. ChatGPT developer OpenAI previously revealed that GPT-4, the newest iteration of the chatbot, could pass law school exams and high school tests with scores ranking within the 90th percentile.
Other parties also experimented with GPT-4 to predict the crypto market, including digital asset-focused media Cointelegraph. After the ChatGPT update, Cointelegraph asked the chatbot to list digital assets it should invest $100 in to make the highest return on investment. The chatbot recommended Cointelegraph allocate 50 percent of the fund in Bitcoin because of the token’s market dominance and potential rally.
https://twitter.com/jconorgrogan/status/1652667530173902848
Bitcoin may breach $100,000
Last month, British multinational bank Standard Chartered predicted that Bitcoin could hit the $100,000 mark by the end of 2024. Bitcoin’s current highest price is $68,789.63, which the token hit in November 2021.
Standard Chartered analysts said the banking crisis in March could boost the token’s rally significantly since the crisis highlighted Bitcoin’s advantages as a “decentralized, trustless and scarce digital asset.” During the banking crisis, Bitcoin rallied multiple times to nearly $30,000. It eventually broke the $30,000 level later in April.
Analysts explained that multiple major stablecoins had lost their peg to the U.S. dollar, causing investors to put their money in the Bitcoin “safe haven.” Standard Chartered head of crypto research and EM FX West Geoff Kendrick said investors perceived Bitcoin as a worthy asset to store value.
https://twitter.com/jconorgrogan/status/1652669199758643204
In addition to the decline in stablecoins, Kendrick said a better “profitability backdrop” for crypto miners could further boost Bitcoin’s rally. Miners saw a sharp decrease in profit margins during the peak of crypto winter in 2022, which forced them to sell most of their mined crypto to gain revenue. Recently, however, the price range of Bitcoin stayed above the average mining cost of $15,000.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision will also affect Bitcoin price, according to Kendrick, with the prospect of a rate hike pause can prompt people to invest in risk-on assets like crypto. Analysts have predicted that after a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday, the Fed will keep the interest rate at the same level for the rest of the year.