Wolf, a popular crypto commentator on social media Twitter, stated that Bitcoin’s price action is likely not going lower. The commentator referred to trends in the past. He tweeted that “negative 3d MA100 will cross positive 3d MA200 by half July, that would confirm that bottom is in”.
Is the bottom in ?— Wolf 🐺 (@IamCryptoWolf) July 4, 2022
If history is any indication, bear markets end when negative 3d 21EMA crosses positive MA200 with a ≈50% sell-off to the 38.2% fib.
While when negative 3d MA100 crosses positive 3d MA200 bottom is already in. $BTC pic.twitter.com/fXYqxGPnXe
Major economic data releases in July 2022
There are three major events that will happen in July 2022: the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 13, an increase in Fed interest rate on July 26-27, and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data of Q2 GDP on July 28. They don’t only impact the crypto market’s future but also the US macroeconomy.
Michaël van de Poppe, EightGlobal’s founder, suggested a crypto community to check the upcoming CPI. This data provides an idea about how inflation progresses. It measures the average difference in consumer prices based on household needs. The rise of inflation will affect cryptocurrency demands as people need to spend more to get the same number of items.
An interest rate hike is still in the consideration phase. The Fed is mulling over whether to increase the rate by a 50 or 75 basis point. This approach can slow down inflation but it can also increase borrowing costs. Interest hikes may put pressure on high-risk assets like cryptocurrency as people will choose to invest in assets with lower risk.
Data on US Q2 GDP is important as it informs us about whether the US has entered a recession. A recession occurs when the country has experienced two consecutive GDP declines. In the first quarter of 2022, the US experienced a -1.6% GDP decline. The current projection for the second quarter is a -2.1% decline. Cryptocurrency will see more decline even after 2023 after the economy enters a full blown recession.
Although the situation looks grim, crypto expert Erik Voorhees said that the community shouldn’t be too worried about a crypto crash in the future. It is because the crash happened due to outside factors inside of internal issues in the currency itself.
On Thursday, Bitcoin went up to a $20,500 level, pulling away from a level below $20,000 it had suffered for some time. Experts analyze whether the cryptocurrency will be able to maintain the upward momentum.
On July 7, the 21-day MA was at $20,300, the 50-month MA at $21,570, and the 200-week MA at $22,560. The three sets of data are important in bear markets to see the sustainability of the high-risk asset. At this rate, Bitcoin is likely to target the $30,000 level but it won’t dare to signal that the bear market has ended.
The market situation in the second half will force Bitcoin to make a move before the effects of the recession really hit. Investors must focus on how the cryptocurrency will try to navigate through changes in interest rates and inflation. The losses that Bitcoin experienced in the first half of 2022 will be the foundation for investors to make the decisions.