Asian markets surged on Monday, riding the wave of excitement surrounding artificial intelligence developments in the tech sector.
The Nikkei index in Tokyo rose 1.2 percent, reaching a new 34-year peak, contributing to an 8.7 percent gain in January. Intel and IBM are preparing to announce their results this week, alongside Tesla, Netflix, Lockheed Martin and various other companies.
In the futures market, Nasdaq futures extended their rally with a 0.7 percent increase, while S&P 500 futures strengthened by 0.3 percent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures also showed positive signs with gains of 1.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rebounded with a 0.5 percent increase after facing downward pressure last week. China's markets, which experienced a slump to five-year lows, contributed to this pressure, sparking speculation about state funds having to intervene to support stocks.
Despite the challenges, Beijing appears hesitant to implement aggressive stimulus measures, as the central bank opted not to cut rates in its market operations on Monday. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, is expected to maintain its super-dovish monetary policy during its Tuesday meeting, supported by a second consecutive month of slowing consumer prices.
Analysts anticipate that the Bank of Japan will closely monitor the results of the spring wage rounds to gauge the strength of economic growth before contemplating any tightening measures.
"Drawing on the first 'shunto' results released mid-March and the April branch managers' meeting, the BoJ will be able to confirm the sustainability of wages and exit negative interest rate policy in April," wrote Barclays analysts in a note.
They anticipate gradual rate hikes from the second half of 2024, but policy rates are expected to remain well below neutral levels.
ECB anticipated to maintain stability
As the week unfolds, global financial markets are bracing for crucial central bank meetings and economic indicators. The upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday is anticipated to maintain a stable course following recent hawkish commentary from top ECB officials.
Giovanni Zanni, an analyst at NatWest Markets, noted that while a March cut remains plausible, the strong resistance from ECB officials in recent days increases the likelihood of a cut in June.
"Data have continued to support our long-held view that the ECB probably went too far in its rate rising cycle," he said, as quoted by Reuters.
"We believe that a delay will likely imply the need for a bolder first move, with a 50bp cut more likely than a 25bp one."
Market futures are currently pricing in a 40 basis point easing by June, with a 76 percent chance of a first cut in May. Meanwhile, central banks in Canada and Norway, also meeting this week, are expected to maintain their current rates.
In the United States, recent hawkish commentary has prompted a reduction in the probability of a March cut by the Federal Reserve, now standing at 49 percent, down from around 75 percent a few weeks ago.
With Fed officials in a blackout this week ahead of the next meeting on January 30-31, the prospects for an early easing will be influenced by forthcoming data on U.S. economic growth and core inflation.