The uncertainty surrounding European banks deepened this week as the ripple effects of the global real estate crisis continued to unfold. Unease about the health of the US commercial property market has deepened, prompting some observers to issue dire predictions of a credit collapse. These concerns, which have already affected banks in New York and Japan, reached Europe this week, causing fears of a wider spread of the crisis.
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG has suffered bond losses after investors expressed concern over its involvement in a specific industry. (Industry-specific concerns led to losses for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG's bondholders.)
The bank issued an unscheduled statement on Wednesday, February 8th, acknowledging the persistent weakness in real estate markets and increasing its reserves accordingly.
There are serious concerns in the US real estate market
Paul van der Westhusen, credit strategist Rabobank
The US impact
The current situation is described as the biggest real estate crisis since the financial crisis of 2008. European banks are preparing contingency plans for loans given to property proprietors and builders as the value of their assets declines due to escalating interest rates.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged commercial property losses as a concern but expressed optimism about the resolution. The impact of this crisis has been severe in city offices in the US, where the return to work post-pandemic has been slow and less dramatic than expected.
Analysts Green Street estimate that a new depreciation of up to 15% may be required for commercial properties this year due to overvaluation concerns.
The approach PBB in privileged places and overall value relatively conservative models provide some protection against negative consequences.
Sonia Forsterve, president Ratings of European financial institutions V Morningstar DBRS
The downward trend in bond prices accelerated with Morgan Stanley recommending clients sell senior bonds issued by German PBB on Tuesday. The bond value for Aareal Bank AG decreased substantially by approximately 10 points and was priced at 76 euro cents on Wednesday.
Beyond Germany's borders, Swiss financial organization Julius Baer Group, LLC reports significant loan losses linked to a distressed real estate firm. The potential ripple effects on other European banks with exposure to US commercial real estate cause concern, especially for smaller institutions.
New York Community Bank's bonds plummeted after the bank slashed its dividend and stockpiled reserves due to real estate market weakness.
The banking institution faced a rating decrease by Moody's Investor Service in January due to concerns over its involvement in real estate complications. Simultaneously, Aozora Bank reported a loss for the first time in 15 years, resulting from the need to make provisions on US commercial real estate loans.
Paul van der Westhuizen, credit strategist at Rabobank, affirmed that there are serious concerns in the US real estate market. The US commercial real estate sector saw loss reserves jump by a factor of four, as stated in Deutsche Bank AG's latest annual report. Given the falling asset prices, refinancing represents the most severe threat to the ailing industry, as warned by industry insiders.
On Tuesday, frankfurt-listed Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG saw their stocks fall below the Euro Bank Stoxx index.
Lenders who base their decisions on these estimates are more likely to suffer a loss in value
Analysts Green Street
Bafin gave no comments regarding specific lenders involved, but they acknowledged their attentiveness towards the evolving circumstances.
What does it mean for Europe?
The value of German Landesbanks' investments in commercial real estate resulted in substantial losses, causing a reported reserve amount of around $436 million during the first half of 2023.
Should commercial real estate losses increase in Europe, a new financial crisis reminiscent of the 2008 global crisis can affect smaller banks.
In 2008, regional banks faced substantial financial losses, amounting to billions of euros, from their involvement with subprime mortgages in the United States. The future actions of European banks in response to this uncertain situation and the possibility of further escalation remain to be observed.