Bitcoin is likely to reach 25k in the short-run. The 18 December Bitcoin Price Fundamental Analysis shows that a strong retracement is likely to occur.
18 December, Swissquote - Who would have thought at the start of the year that the Bitcoin would increase by 20 fold? That was simply unpredictable. Some, of course, bet on the increase of the Bitcoin over the year but the growth is just massive and is probably way too fast.
18 December Bitcoin Price Fundamental Analysis
The introduction of futures trading has driven up the prices. We nonetheless believe that it may artificially increase the supply and weigh down on the price. In the short-run, Bitcoin is likely to reach 25k but we believe strong retracement will likely occur at some point. Indeed markets are driven by greed and Bitcoin is far from being a perfect cryptocurrency (high transaction fees and low scalability). Yet, our view on Bitcoin is largely bullish within the next few years and should reach easily 100k. Bitcoin is expensive but it is, even more, scarce.
US Tax and JPY
The focus of the week, until Catalonian elections on Friday, will be US tax reform. The tax reforms bill likely ends up on the US Presidents desk as the reconciliation of the package bill moves from the House to the Senate. Despite the hype over benefits into the US economy and support of dollar, we suspect real follow-thru will be limited. Trump has stated, “this is going to be one of the great Christmas gifts to middle-income people.” What we see in the bill is hardly that “gift” and will have to wait for our filing to be on a postcard. US rates are also unimpressed as the 10-yr yield lingers around the 2.36% area.
The markets fell for the “Trump Growth” story last year, this year not so quick to jump in. USDJPY, high sensitivity to yields, has failed to response holding the pair at 112.60. In regards to the JPY, the BoJ meeting this week should be uneventful. Prime ministers Abel third landslide victory indicates that macroeconomic policy stance “Abenomics” will continue uninterrupted. With the BoJ focused on Yield Curve Control (YCC). Speculation of a change of policy is premature yet will likely keep USDJPY from surging higher.
This article ‘ 18 December Bitcoin Price Fundamental Analysis ‘ was written by Yann Quelenn and Peter Rosenstreich, Market Analysts at Swissquote.
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