Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator

Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator calculates the optimal risk percentage per trade to maximize your account in the fastest way possible. The Kelly Criterion is known among investors as a way to estimate how much to risk in order to increase your returns when the odds are in your favor.

The Kelly Criterion formula

The final simplified version of the Kelly Criterion formula is: K% = W – Where: K% = Optimal percentage of risk per trade. W = Your winning probability. R = Win/loss ratio also known as risk/reward. The Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator estimates your risk reward and profitability based on at least 10 past trades of a specific instrument automatically.

Kelly Criterion examples

If your probability of winning is 60% and your risk/reward is 1:1.5. The optimal amount you should risk according to Kelly Criterion is 33%. If your probability of winning is 70% and your risk/reward is 2:1. The optimal amount you should risk according to Kelly Criterion is 10%.

How to use Kelly Criterion in Forex

The Kelly Criterion is designed for mathematical systems based on at least 50 bets and assuming that future bets will have the same probability of winning and reward.

In Forex, however, things sometimes can go bad and quite fast. In addition, there are varying spreads, human emotions, and simple mistakes. Therefore, we have added to the Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator two ranges. One for conservative trading and one for aggressive trading styles.

In order to increase the reliability of Kelly Criterion in Forex, you should: Be consistent with your trading strategy and style. Have a large history of trades, preferably >50. Have Stop Loss levels at all times. Trade at the conservative risk range. You should also be experienced in trading Forex, otherwise, you risk crashing your account.

Download Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator

You can download Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator for free by clicking the “Download” button located at the bottom of the screen.

Create your own custom EA or indicator

If you would like to create your own custom indicator or an EA, please contact AtoZ team saying “I want to create my own EA/indicator,” and describing your desired tool. Also, don’t miss out on various other indicators and EAs you can find in our database here.


Want to trade Forex using Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator? Open a free account with AtoZ Markets approved forex brokers:

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How do you install an indicator on MT4?

In order to install this indicator on your MT4, you need to:

1. Click on “Download” button above to download Kelly Criterion .ex4;

2. Save the file to your computer;

3. Extract and move the files into:

4. Restart your MetaTrader platform;

5. Click “Indicators” button in MetaTrader toolbar;

6. Select “Custom”;

7. Search and select “Kelly Criterion" .ex4 indicator;

8. Adjust settings or press OK to add the indicator to your selected chart; This MT4 Forex tool has a set expiry data. To reactivate it later, please place a sent key file to MQLFilesAtoZ LicenseProduct Code.

Note: Kelly Criterion MT4 indicator was developed by AtoZ Markets. AtoZ Market carry copyrights over this trading tool.


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  1. Ric Rubiano says:


    The Kelly indicator is expired. If its free its a good idea if the indicator works after decompressing the zip file.


  2. Mario says:

    The Kelly indicator expired

    • Aman says:


      Thanks for notifying us. Our team will update the indicator shortly.

      Best Regards


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