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World's economic worries bigger than China

World's economic worries bigger than China

8 September,, Lagos – The recent run of disappointing action in the stock-market has served to further dampen the good outlook of China for some weeks now. China, the world’s second largest economy is fast loosing momentum and everyone is blaming the country for dragging the world down with it. Brian Kelly of CNBC opines that China benefited from the global expansion of money supply at the hands of activist central banks, not because of leadership influence.

After the Central banks in the U.S, Europe and Japan eased policy, money sought a higher-yielding home in China. It is only normal for the growth China experienced as a result of the capital inflow the expansionary monetary policy created to slowdown gradually as the policy ends.

Speaking on the world’s economic worries, the Bank for international settlements (BIS) reported that since 2010, the amount of U.S dollar-dominated debt issued by foreign organizations has grown by 50 percent from $6 trillion to $9 trillion. The debt build up is largely attributable to U.S Federal Reserve quantitative easing on bond yields- as the Federal Reserve bought bonds, yields were edging lower and investors came under intense pressure to search globally for higher-yielding financial instruments. This demand for yield instigated a credit binge of new scale.

Worth the risks?

Investors perceived that investing in countries like Brazil, Turkey and China were worth risking, especially if emerging- market companies were offering better yields. Real economic project benefited from some of the credit extended to emerging-market companies, but according to Bank of international settlements (BIS) report in August, most of the money was channeled to higher yielding shadow-banking instruments. This is the so-called global carry trade. The global carry trade works especially well under three conditions:

  • There is a large interest-rate differential between the U.S. and the emerging country
  • The emerging country’s currency is rising
  • Currency volatility is very low

In the search for yields

Global carry trade works in this manner; Bonds dominated in U.S dollars is issued by an emerging-market company, the yield on the bonds will be above the yield of U.S corporate bonds, but below the yields on shadow-banking instruments within the emerging-markets.

The investors searching for yields are attracted by the relatively higher yielding bonds, simultaneously, the emerging market company can invest the proceeds of the bond sale into higher yielding instruments. The emerging-market company ends up earning the difference between its low yielding U.S dollar bonds and its high yield emerging-market investment.

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of AtoZ, nor should they be attributed to AtoZMarkets.

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