EURUSD rallied after a worse than expected US employment data. Will the currency pair rally further after completing a bullish pattern?
11 March 2019. | AtoZ markets – Last Friday’s U.S job data came worse than the market expected. The data showed that 20k jobs were added to the U.S workforce on February as against the 180k the market expected. The Dollar fall was limited after a positive unemployment rate and a better than expected average hourly earnings came at the same time.
The dollar will most probably return upside after the Fed chairman Powel, in an interview on Saturday, acknowledged the strength of the US economy and also emphasized ‘patience’, thus clearing market doubts. Furthermore, the US-China trade talks have progressed according to the Head of the Central Bank of China.
Uncertainties are going out gradually and the Dollar is sure to benefit from it. The majors might soon return downside against the greenback in the coming weeks. The Euro-zone economy is not getting any lift after the situation got worsened by last week’s ECB dovish forecasts. The Brexit uncertainty is another bearish trigger for EURUSD.
EURUSD Elliott wave analysis and important price levels
Price dropped below 1.12 after ECB’s dovish comments, to trade at its lowest in 21 months. It quickly bounced and returned above 1.12 after a negative NFP. It started this week around 1.1222, followed by a green London session to 1.1258 before dropping back to 1.1222. Price is getting stabilized within the 1.1235 and 1.1215 important price levels.
In the last update, we expected a bullish correction after price completed a bearish impulse wave from 1.142 albeit with no reversal patterns. A worse than expected NFP ”would see the continuation of a bullish correction to 1.13-1.135”. The chart below was used in the last update.
The move above 1.1235 signifies that the bullish correction has started and is expected to continue to 1.13-1.1315. Besides the wave count above, an alternative shown below also supports further rallies.
At 1.157, we counted the end of a large bullish correction that lasted for almost 3 months. The trend should continue and a motive wave is needed. The drop from 1.157 completed a leading diagonal pattern at 1.117 which quite goes well with the bearish trend narrative. The current bullish corrective run should continue to 1.132-1.137 fib-correction level (or even up to 1.142). A leading diagonal is often followed by a shallow correction with the exemption of a less often occasions. The bearish trend is expected to continue after the current correction ends.
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