Weekly technical USDJPY & AUDUSD analysis into NFP


The following is weekly technical USDJPY and AUDUSD analysis into NFP report scheduled on Friday. See the major technical levels and trade outlook for these two Asian currency pairs.

02 October, AtoZForexThis week market participants’ eyes will be on US Non-Farm payrolls report on Friday. Heading into this important data, we have technical analysis for two G10 Asian pairs AUDUSD and USDJPY.

Weekly technical AUDUSD analysis

Looking at AUDUSD, both SMAs and MACD confirm a bullish setup with a strong underlying upward trend. However, lower daily lows and lower daily highs in combination with narrowing triangle formation prevent me from longing the pair.

Weekly technical USDJPY & AUDUSD analysis into NFP Technical AUDUSD analysis into NFP (click to zoom in)

Hence, to stay onthe safe side, we should wait for a breakout and trade the pair in the direction of the price movement using an opportunity after a correction from the boundary trend line.

Weekly fundamental AUDUSD analysis

With fundamentally busy week, both Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday and US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday have the potential to result in a breakout. The consensus is for RBA cash rate to remain unchanged at 1.50% and thus the focus will shift to October RBA Rate Statement. Meanwhile, market participants will again try to judge December Fed rate hike probability based on employment data. Average Hourly Earnings m/m should be in focus as employment rate has long been strong.

Weekly technical USDJPY analysis

Moving on to technical outlook for USDJPY, our trend indicators point to the downside and we could expect further bearish continuation.

Weekly technical USDJPY & AUDUSD analysis into NFP Technical USDJPY analysis into NFP (click to zoom in)

We have already taken profit on the correction from Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 101.6. Nevertheless, we could once again short USDJPY from the 101.6 area aiming towards a custom Fibonacci 88% zone at 100.6. Although on the way to the target we have another strong support at 101.0 Fibonacci 76.4% retracement level.

It’s worth to mention that weekly USDJPY price has approach the end of weekly narrowing triangle and thus we should not be surprised by any erratic price movement.

Weekly fundamental USDJPY analysis

From fundamental perspective, we have nothing important scheduled for the JPY. Yet the USD will face scrutiny from Manufacturing PMI on Monday, Services PMI on Wednesday, and most importantly US NFP report on Friday.

Also see: Weekly fundamental outlook: Trade opportunities into NFP

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