Weekly COT analysis for Majors

21 September, AtoZForex.com, Vilnius – This week’s Scotiabank’s Cot report outlines the fall of USD longs, based on the prior week’s IMM data analysis. Finalizing the report, the major bank added weekly COT analysis for majors.

Following the previous week’s International Monetary Market (IMM) data, the numbers indicated a speculative market positioning, as investors were most likely shifting to a neutral or defensive mode ahead of the Thursday’s FOMC meeting.

Shift in sentiment

Cumulative Translation Adjustment (CTA) accounts decreased their bullish bets on the USD once more. The IMM’s USD bull contraction amounted to an additional $2.1bn fall to a total of USD22.7bn.

Meanwhile, net GBP shorts decreased dramatically from $1.7bn through September 8th to a mere USD0.347bn.

Net CHF shorts were converted to modest net longs this week, from $880mn to $485mn respectively.

In the commodity currency bloc, net shorts of the CAD, the AUD and the NZD were trimmed modestly, yet with a larger nominal–adjustments evident in the latter two.

Could it be concluded that although slowly, the investors shift their confidence away from the US Dollar?

Capital outflows

Some of the chipped short failings were concentrated to sell the EUR and the JPY. “This is likely because any shift upwards in US interest rates the US would contrast most obviously with zero (negative) and the easier still policy bias of the ECB and BoJ,” Scotiabank explained.

JPY net short positions have increased dramatically, the bets rose by $700mn to $2.7bn, yet a relatively mere position for this market. Meanwhile, investors have also added nearly USD0.5bn to EUR shorts last week, totalling $11.86bn, however, well below the peak amount earlier this year.

COT analysis for majors

Sentiment $mns
15-Sep Bias Trend Position w/w chg.
Gold Bullish Decreasing 4371 -2279
CHF Neutral Neutral 485 1366
NZD Neutral Neutral -133 617
GBP Neutral Neutral -345 1350
MXN Bearish Decreasing -1656 452
JPY Bearish Increasing -2783 -2088
AUD Bearish Decreasing -2909 832
CAD Bearish Neutral -3554 129
EUR Bearish Increasing -11861 -484
Total USD psn. (excl. Gold) 22785 -2174

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