USDCAD drops to 100 Moving Average: Canadian Dollar Strengthens


The USDCAD dropped 60 pips to the Daily Chart 100 Moving Average for the first time in six weeks on Friday afternoon. The Canadian Dollar strengthens, boosted by rising Crude Oil prices and positive Canadian data.

2 December, AtoZForex – Although, the NFP figures came in slightly better than expected, 177k expected versus the 178k result, USDCAD dropped to a 1.3254 session low. This is the lowest price has traded since October 21. What can we expect if the Canadian Dollar strengthens further?

Non Farm Payroll Data                                                                       Monthly Average Hourly Earnings
Previous 142,000 Previous 0.4%
Market Expectation 172,000 Market Expectation 0.2%
Actual 178,000 Actual -0.1%

Despite a slightly better NFP data, the monthly Average Hourly Earnings came out worse than expected at -0.1%. This is the worst Average Hourly Earnings release since September 2016.

Canadian Dollar Strengthens as Bears take charge Short-Term

Canadian Dollar Strenghtens to the 100 Daily EMA USDCAD Daily Chart (Click to zoom)

On the daily chart, we can see that the price has moved within an ascending channel. A break below the channel could mean more selling pressure for USDCAD. The session low at 1.3250 is also a key level as break below, and price could to drop to 1.3000 (October 2016 low).

Canada Employment Change                                                           Canada Unemployment Rate
Previous 43,900 Previous 7%
Market Expectation -16,500 Market Expectation 7%
Actual 10,700  Actual 6.8%

Apart from a better than expected data, the Canadian Dollar strengthens also as an OPEC agreement was reached earlier this week for Crude Oil production Cut. On Wednesday, November 30, OPEC member nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran pledged a deal. The OPEC agreement was to cut 1.2 million barrels of crude Oil per day. Crude Oil price appreciated over 400 pips (50.28) as the deal was reached. The Canadian Dollar surged due to its close correlation with crude oil and if Crude Oil hits 60$ as some analysts believe, the USDCAD will dip further.

What To Expect if the Canadian Dollar Strengthens Further.

Canadian Dollar Strengthens due to strong employment data USDCAD 15 Minutes Chart (Click to zoom)

We might expect the price of USDCAD to fall towards the 200 EMA at 1.3164. A break below of that level could expose October 2016 lows at 1.3000.

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