15 February 2017 USD bullish after USA CPI and Retail Sales data


Wednesday 15 February 2017  USD bullish after USA CPI data release and above market expectation  and the investment banks Barclays, BoA and SEB. 

15 February, AtoZForex – Listed below we have the result of the a number of USA economic data releases among these we have the USA Consumer Price Index (CPI), we look into what the market and investment banks expectation.

@1:30pm GMT – USA CPI m/m (Actual – 0.6%; F- 0.3%; P- 0.3%)

                                – USA Core CPI m/m (Actual – 0.3%; F- 0.2%; P- 0.2%)

                                – USA Retail sales m/m (Actual – 0.4%; F- 0.1%; P- 0.6%)

                                – USA Core Retail sales m/m (Actual – 0.8%; F- 0.4%; P- 0.2%)

USA CPI data forecast

USA CPI – Barclays, BoA and SEB’s expectations

We look at what the investment banks expectations were

Barclays – USA CPI expectations

Barclays expect the headline CPI to increase 0.4% on a m/m basis and 2.4% on a y/y. Forecast for the Core CPI, where Barclays expect Core CPI to increase 0.2% on a m/m basis and 2.2% on a y/y basis (the y/y is 0.1% higher than market consensus).  Additionally, Barclays forecast CPI NSA index at 242.6.  Barclays added..

” we expect a gradual firming in core inflation, with diminishing drag from core goods inflations and continued increase in core services inflation. 

BoA – USA CPI expectations

BoA expect CPI to increase 0.4% on a m/m basis and Core CPI BoA expectation is that is for 0.2% m/m in line with most analysts.

SEB – US CPI expectations

SEB expects CPI to increase 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y and for Core CPI 0.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y and expects headline CPI to overshoot core measurement in 1H17, as core inflation has been noted to be slightly lower in the last 3-4 months. Additionally SEB added…

” .. but the year on year change is predicted to peak in February.

USD Bulls in control

USD appreciated after the release of the keey USA CPI and Retail Sales data. USDJPY surged to the 114.94 level after the news. From here we could see the 115.55-60 level at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone tested once again before pulling back to 114.55 -50 level.

15 February 2017 USD bullish after USA CPI and Retail Sales data USDJPY Hourly chart H1 (click to zoom in)

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