USA CPI Preview Barclays BoA SEB expectations?

We look at the USA CPI and what markets can expect, as well as what some of the investment banks Barclays, BoA and SEB expectations?

18 January, AtoZForex – Today we have the USA Consumer Price Index (CPI), we look into what the market and investment banks expectation.

USA CPI data forecast

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics information on Consumer Price Index (CPI):

USA CPI for December @ 1:30pm (GMT)

  • m/m expected 0.3% increase, prior 0.2% and

    y/y expected 2.1%, prior 1.7%.

For the Core CPI also @ 1:30pm (GMT)

  • m/m expected 0.2% and prior 0.2% and

    y/y expected 2.1%, prior 2.1%.

USA CPI – Barclays, BoA and SEB’s expectations

We look at what the investment banks expectations are.

Barclays – USA CPI expectations

Barclays expect the headline CPI to increase 0.3% on a m/m basis and 2.1% on a y/y, in line with the market consensus. This is not the case for the Core CPI, where Barclays expect Core CPI to increase 0.2% on a m/m basis and 2.2% on a y/y basis (the y/y is 0.1% higher than market consensus).  Additionally, Barclays forecast CPI NSA index at 241.5.  Barclays added..

We expect positive energy base effects to continue boosting headline inflation. In addition, still-improving labor markets and solid demand remain supportive of Core CPI. 

BoA – USA CPI expectations

BoA expect CPI to increase 0.4% on a m/m basis and 2.2% on a y/y, higher than market consensus. The increase is boosted by energy price increases and modest food price increases.

For Core CPI BoA expectation is that is should inch up to 2.2% from 2.1% y/y. BoA added ..

there are strong base effects over the next few months over the next few months that should result in higher headline inflation.

SEB – US CPI expectations

SEB expects CPI to increase 0.3% m/m and 2.1% y/y and for Core CPI 0.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y and expects headline CPI to overshoot core measurement in 1H17, as core inflation has been noted to be slightly lower in the last 3-4 months. Additionally SEB added…

” .. a stronger dollar and indirect effects from earlier price declines on commodities will contribute to keeping core inflation low.

TradingDoc– We can expect USD to appreciate if data comes better than expectation. Trade USDJPY currency pair.

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