When are the US retail sales data and how could it affect DXY? This is unveiled in the following 16 July US Dollar Index Impact Analysis.
16 July, GKFX – The US economic docket at the start of a new trading week highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 1230 GMT.
US retail sales overview
Consensus estimates point to a 0.5% m/m rise in June as compared to a 0.8% growth reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, are projected to have expanded by 0.4% on a monthly basis, following a 0.9% increase in May.
US Retail Sales Data: 16 July US Dollar Index Impact Analysis
A disappointing reading might further fuel concerns that escalating US-China trade tensions is influencing consumer sentiment and impact negatively on the USD, albeit firming Fed rate hike expectations might continue to limit any sharp downfall.
Focusing on the key US Dollar Index, a breach of the 94.45 immediate support (10-day SMA) is likely to open the room for a test of 94.00 handle ahead of 93.70 support area (July 9 swing low).
Conversely, a stronger than expected print should provide a minor boost to the greenback and lift the index back towards the key 95.00 psychological mark. A follow-through up-move is likely to confront resistance near the 95.25 region ahead of YTD high level of 95.53 touched on June 28.
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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