01 June, AtoZForex, London – Barclays Capital along with SEB bank have provided us expectations for today’s major data releases and technical setups for six currency pairs. The following is US ISM manufacturing forecast & Barclays Forex analysis for EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and USDCAD.
US ISM manufacturing forecast
The US factory sector remained in expansion in April but the headline figure softened and missed consensus estimate after spiking higher the prior month. SEB argues that regional data suggest that factory sector might have weakened further in May. The Philadelphia Fed index, the Empire index, and the Richmond Fed barometer all declined. These indicators are included in SEB ISM forecasting model, along with forward looking ISM orders and ISM inventories.
Thus, “the model suggests a steady 50.9 reading in May (up from 50.8) which is our consensus,” SEB projected.
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Barclays Forex analysis
EURUSD
A close below 1.1215 has confirm a key monthly reversal on EURUSD and encouraged Barclays’ bearish view. “We are looking for a move below initial downside targets near 1.10995 to signal lower towards our next targets in the 1.0990 area,” Barclays added.
USDJPY
Following the break below the 110.60 area, Barclays stays cautiously bearish. Overall, 111.90 range highs should now act as a resistance and guide the price lower towards the initial targets near 108.20. “Below 108.20 would signal further downside towards our next targets in the 106.40 area and then 105.20,” Barclays added.
USDCHF
Moving on, Barclays is neutral on USDCHF and would prefer to buy dips towards a support in the 0.9835 area, the 100/200 dma. “Our upside targets are towards parity and then the 1.0100 area,” Barclays noted.
AUDUSD
Turning to commodity currencies, with price close below 0.7260, near the 200 dma, Barclays looks for a move towards 0.7040 level and then the 0.6825 year to date lows.
NZDUSD
Meanwhile, close below 0.6760 has confirmed a monthly engulfing candle and encourage Barclays’ bearish view towards targets near 0.6665 and then 0.6545. “Upticks are likely to find selling interest near 0.6810,” Barclays added.
USDCAD
Finishing US ISM manufacturing forecast & Barclays Forex analysis, the investment bank remains bearish on the Loonie and looks for a move below a support near 1.2910 to signal lower towards the next targets near the 1.2770 range lows.
Also see: Morgan Stanley Forex outlook for USD, EUR, JPY, GBP
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