US Election Day forecast: Clinton Win is already priced in?


US Election Day forecast sees Hillary Clinton as the potential winner of the US Presidential race. Democratic Nominee now enjoys a lead of 4 percent. Will Trump's campaign lead him to the White House?

8 November, AtoZForex With only some hours left before Americans will choose their New President, polls put Hillary Clinton’s chances of victory at 90 percent.

The US Election Day forecast

Hillary Clinton is leading the US Presidential race as of now, where the polls indicate 48 percent of her favor, in comparison to 44 percent for Donald Trump, the Republican Nominee. Clinton’s chances were somewhat endangered by the FBI probe last week, yet she made it back to the strong leading position.

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The ex-Secretary of the state was back on track of the race, having won 303 votes in the Electoral College over Trump’s 235. Donald Trump’s chances are not that prospecting, as in order to win, he will need to have all the votes from Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

If Trump loses in any combination of two states of Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, this will most probably lead the Clinton to victory, according to market analysts. Meanwhile, Trump might want to stick to Arizona, as this state is traditionally Republican.

In order to get the place in the White House, Donald Trump needs higher produce among Republican white voters, a drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a lesser-than-expected boost in Hispanic voters, according to market forecasts.

Is Clinton victory already priced in?

North Carolina is about to be one of the first states to publish the result of the elections tonight. The reports from this state might provide further clues to the ultimate outcome. In case Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina, this would imply African-Americans’ turnout to vote at a rate akin to 2012, when Barack Obama was ahead of Mitt Romney by four points nationally.

The poll from the States of the Nation indicates that early votes have been divided evenly between Clinton and Trump in North Carolina. Yet, Republican Nominee has enjoyed a one-point lead among all likely voters. Also, he had a 30 percentage point advantage among white voters, with African-American voters mostly favoring Clinton.

Moreover, Florida is crucial to Donald Trump’s victory. In case Clinton wins this state, she will just need to win one of the three states: Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to become the next President of the US. According to the polls, now Hillary has a tiny advantage above Trump in Florida.

In addition, Hillary Clinton gets a lot of support in Pennsylvania. Yet, there is a possibility that these states could turn their favor in Trump’s direction.

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