29 July 2019, GKFX – The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, keeps the buying interest well and sound above the key handle at 98.00 the figure.
US dollar index focussed on FOMC, payrolls
The index is up for the third week in a row so far today and is trading closer to yearly peaks in the 98.35/40 band recorded in late May.
Mounting expectations of ECB easing as early as in September keeps weighing on the single currency and dragging EURUSD to the vicinity of 2019 lows while diminishing odds for a 50 bps interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its meeting on Wednesday have been also sustaining the upside momentum in the buck.
The ongoing up move in DXY comes along a decline in yields of the US 10-year note to the vicinity of 2.05% after climbing as high as the 2.15% area in mid-July.
The FOMC meeting will then be the salient event in the first half of the week, while the release of July’s Non-farm Payrolls and the key ISM Manufacturing should dominate the calendar in the second half of the week.
What to look around for USD
Investors have already priced in a 25 bps interest rate cut this month, while a larger rate cut is now practically off the table following Friday’s GDP figures. Trade talks are back to the fore in light of this week’s meeting in China, also lending support to the pick up in the risk-on mood. The demand for the greenback, in the meantime, stays underpinned by its safe have appeal, the status of ‘global reserve currency’, solid US fundamentals and the broad-based shift to a more accommodative stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks.
US dollar index technical analysis
At the moment, the pair is up 0.23% at 98.13 and faces the next resistance at 98.16 (monthly high Jul.29) seconded by 98.33 (monthly high Apr.23) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 23). On the flip side, a breakdown of 96.87 (200-day SMA) would open the door to 96.67 (low Jul.18) and then 96.46 (low Jun.7).
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