September NFP to rebound

2 October,, Lagos – The US unemployment claims remained strong, reporting seasonally adjusted initial claims was 277,000 in the last week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed that the pace of growth at U.S. factories slowed in September, a sign that the falling growth situation in the global economy could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates.

Although coming at 50.2, above the 50 benchmark for expansion, the manufacturing PMI data fell for the third consecutive month. Also, UK manufacturing PMI came at 51.5 in September as the performance of the UK manufacturing sector remained lackluster rounding off one of its weakest quarters during the past two years.

Australian Retail Sales m/m

The retail sales figure came at 0.4%, showing a jump from last months -0.1%.

UK Construction PMI 8:30 A.M GMT

The UK Construction PMI for September is forecast to come at 57.5. A potential slight development from last month’s figure of 57.3. In August, there was a strong and accelerated rise in total construction output. UK construction companies remained in recovery mode in the month, with business activities and employment levels both expanding at a strong pace.

There were also some encouraging signs that strains on raw material availability have started to subside, as highlighted by the slowest deterioration in vendor performance for just over three years in August. The data for September is forecast to show a continuation in the growth trend. A disappointment will definitely put further strain on the falling sterling.

US Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 A.M GMT)

Again, we have the all important NFP figures for the month. All eyes will be on this figures as August marked the second-weakest month of job creation this year. Was it a blip or the start of an extended slowdown?  Answers will be sought in this month’s Friday’s report. Workers’ wages continue to grow at a subdued pace despite the drop in unemployment.  The lack of wage growth undermines the theory among Fed officials that falling unemployment pushes up prices and wages, requiring tighter credit to keep inflation in check.

Industry job figures will offer clues on what effect economic turmoil overseas is having on the U.S. Thanks largely to depressed oil prices, jobs at oil and gas extraction firms were down nearly 3% in the year through August. Meanwhile, falling export demand and a strong dollar have weighed on factory hiring this year. It is expected that the September NFP will rebound.

Read also: UBS NFP big revision

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