Scotiabank FX Sentiment Report


This week’s Scotiabank FX Sentiment Report came on Friday the 12th which covered the market developments until the 9th of June.

The bank covered EURO, JPY, USD and CAD in this week’s report.

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Bearish EUR sentiment continues to moderate

As the short covering continues, providing for the bulk of this week’s $3.6bn narrowing in the net short bearish Euro sentiment continues to moderate according to the bank.

Scotiabank Aggregate USD Position & EURO Net Position Scotiabank Aggregate USD Position & EURO Net Position

 

EURO - Non-commercial positioning

Date ($MM) Net Position – contracts of 125,00 EUR
Long Short Net Net w/w Open Int.
9 June -19,460 52,643 190,617 -137,974 27,538 436,540
2 June -23,070 49,471 214,983 -165,512 6,228 428,403
26 May -23,342 44,221 215,961 -171,740 -3,401 431,927
19 May -23,462 38,758 207,097 -168,339 10,637 428,580

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Aggressive JPY bears continued

JPY sellers aggressively continued to add to their short positions, with this week’s $2.6bn build the largest of the past 4 consecutive weeks providing for an aggregate deterioration of $9.5bn. The bank continued that “the rapid build would have left newly established positions especially vulnerable to a turn, amplifying the impact of BoJ Gov. Kuroda’s FX comments.”

Date ($MM) Net Position – contracts of 12.5 MM JPY
Long Short Net Net w/w Open Int.
9 June -11,690 42,440 158,726 -116,286 -30,593 306,449
2 June -8,631 46,681 132,374 -85,693 -23,469 260,104
26 May -6,318 50,210 112,434 -62,224 -40,219 251,744
19 May -2,279 63,398 85,403 -22,005 1,588 231,658

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Major bearish sentiment outlook

The bank maintains bearish sentiment towards most of the major currency pairs. Few tradable instruments are exceptions for the bank’s bearish sentiment. These are the Swiss frank, the US dollar and Gold.

Bearish Bearish
9 June Bias Trend Position w/w chg.
CAD Bearish Increasing -1,114 -1,031
AUD Bearish Neutral -1,079 -49
NZD Bearish Neutral -841 -84
MXN Bearish Neutral -1,641 -179
EUR Bearish Decreasing -19,460 3,611
GBP Bearish Increasing -2,719 -259
CHF Bullish Neutral 1,360 240
JPY Bearish Increasing -11,690 +3,060
Gold Bullish Decreasing 8,837 -3,620

Total USD position (excluding gold)

37,184 810

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