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7 September 2018

Forex

NFP Headline And Earnings both beat

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EURUSD, H1

US August non-farm payrolls rose 201k, while the unemployment rate was 3.9%. The 157k increase in July jobs was revised down to 147k, with June’s prior 248k jump revised to 208k (net -50k). There was no revision to the 3.9% July unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% versus 0.3% previously, and climbed to 2.92% y/y versus July’s 2.73% (revised from 2.70% y/y). The workweek was unchanged at 34.5. The labour force participation rate fell to 62.7% versus 62.9%. The guts of the report showed the labour force dropping 469k from a 105k gain previously, with household employment tumbling 423k versus the 389k rise. Private payrolls increased 204k last month (ADP was 163k). The goods producing sector added 26k, with construction up 23k and manufacturing shedding 3k. Employment in the service sector increased 178k. The government lost 3k workers. The rise in earnings may be the focal point of the report and weigh on bonds. Moreover, the report seals the deal on a Fed hike later this month (not that there was much question).

The Dollar rallied following the jobs report, where the NFP print came in at 201k, versus consensus for a 190k reading. Hourly earnings were better than expected, though the participation rate slipped some. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%. EURUSD slid to 1.1582 from 1.1620, as USDJPY rallied to 111.04 from near 110.80. Equity futures remain underwater, while yields edged higher.

Forex news Fed rate hike
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