Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen to all-time highs every four years. Typically, this happened in the year following the block bounty halving. However, one seasoned trader believes that this time may be different.
On April 6, Peter Brandt wrote on Twitter that the next bull market would probably not take place until 2024. In the meantime, a sideways pattern will dominate the Bitcoin chart.
The past two times $BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 6, 2022
If history repeats itself (which I do not believe it will), the next rocket stage will be ignited in May 2024
What do you all think? pic.twitter.com/ONyWQW5Uf8
Last year, Bitcoin grew to over $60,000, an unprecedented result. However, in the fourth quarter, the cryptocurrency began to decline, eventually losing more than 50. 2021 was the year following the May halving. For this reason, a discussion has arisen on the reliability of the four-year pattern.
Will Bitcoin reignite its bull run in 2024?
As a reminder, several analysts, including the famous PlanB, predicted a peak of $100,000 in 2021. However, their predictions did not come true.
Meanwhile, many different factors have influenced the movement of cryptocurrency prices. From comments by the American Fed to the war in Eastern Europe. These events increased the unpredictability of Bitcoin, and with it the rest of the cryptocurrency market. The result is uncertainty: who will win the bull or bear fight?
Nevertheless, as the chart provided by Brandt shows, 2024 could be a year for the boom to flourish again. Interestingly, this coincides with another halving that should take place around May 8. Even though this is a year ahead of the expected time to reach its peak, BTC could see a 10x increase. Brandt's forecasts are based on historical trends that go beyond the halving cycles.
In the last two instances where BTC surged 10x or more, it took an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket began. If history repeats itself (which I don't believe), the next stage of the rocket will be launched in May 2024.
Ideally, Bitcoin should take to new heights a year after halving. However, trends also show that the asset increases tenfold about 33 months after the last such increase. From these statements, questions arise as to when exactly "the rocket will take effect". What is in agreement between the two theories is that the next bull market will not happen in less than two years.
What do other analysts think?
Market analyst Willy Woo is of a different opinion, believing that Bitcoin is already in a bull market. Woo cites Glassnode's data showing high investor demand:
On April 4, William Clemente, the lead analyst for Blockware, reported a sharp increase in the supply of Bitcoin belonging to small hodlers. In this case, it usually refers to retail entities with less than 1 BTC. Sharing a chart sourced from Glassnode, Clemente mentions there will be a sharp increase in the supply of BTC held by retail investors in 2022. Writes:
"This is a really interesting chart. Retail investors (0-1 BTC) are currently buying at the second-largest pace in Bitcoin history. Looking at retail investor stocks, most of the spikes coincided with macro peaks, but in a few cases, they were buying strategically. This jump is an exception."
Then he added:
"Either we are doomed or the retail trade has decided to use Bitcoin as a savings account and abandon the fiat system. The optimist in me hopes this is the latter option. This jump is an exception."
This is a really interesting chart. Retail (0-1 BTC) is currently buying at the second-highest rate in Bitcoin's history.— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) April 4, 2022
Looking at retail's holdings most spikes have coincided with macro tops, but on several occasions, they have bought strategically. This spike is an outlier. pic.twitter.com/PcGxsoCVku
According to data from Glassnode, entities breeding from 0.1 BTC to 1 BTC currently have a total of 800 500 BTC. On the other hand, Google Trends data shows less interaction than before November 2021, when BTC hit its all-time high of $69,000.
Supply on exchanges
On the positive side, Bitcoin's illiquid supply continues to grow. The supply of Bitcoin (BTC) on exchanges is in a constant downward trend. The last time it was so low was when the BTC price was $7,200.
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