Big moves seen in the markets yesterday, with the breakout on oil as one of the most notable. Today promises to be another big day with the European central bank meeting as the high point on the daily Forex news and trade opportunities list.
March 9, AtoZForex – On the daily Forex news, we also have eyes on the US unemployment claims data as it has been very positive lately. Also considering the strong ADP non-farm payroll data released yesterday at 298k.
#1 Oil breakout here to stay?
Oil has been constrained in a range for many weeks now, only to give a long-awaited break yesterday. Thanks to the crude oil inventories report which showed an 8.2m build in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. This served as a catalyst for oil to crash. The question is would this breakout be sustained?
Opportunity: Sell oil on rallies
#2 Upcoming ECB meeting, What’s next for the Euro?
The inflation in the Eurozone is on target, making it too early to discuss any tapering to the European Central Bank (ECB) massive purchase program. Moreover, the ECB is likely to maintain its pacifist stance at the meeting today, although inflation has reached the 2% target. It is not expected that the ECB will react the stronger inflation figure, though driven by the volatile energy and unprocessed food price inflation. The overall market expectation is that the ECB does not change its monetary policy based on rising in inflation.
#3 New BoE deputy governor Hogg rules out rate hike prospects
Charlotte Hogg was formerly working in the role of a Chief Operating Officer (COO) for the Bank of England. She was responsible for overhauling the central bank’s monetary policy. Along with the banking regulation departments. Ms. Hogg, 46 gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee last week. Where she said that while her colleagues were expecting a gradual slowdown in consumption and consumer sentiment. She felt that it could drop rapidly. The new BoE deputy governor Hogg noted that rising inflation alongside a squeeze in real income growth in the UK households meant that the spending power was being squeezed. She warned that that consumer sentiment could shift rapidly. Citing the 1.8% increase in the headline CPI against a 2.6% increase in the nominal wage growth. As of the latest data obtained before February 28th.
#4 U.K. Signals Brexit trigger in Late March?
According to two British officials and a European Union diplomat, Prime Minister Theresa May’s team increasingly expect the U.K. to trigger the start of Brexit talks in late March. Although parliamentary approval is still pending, this may come through soon. However, there is speculation that PM May will wait till March 25 summit of EU leaders in Rome.
#5 Who will be in Trump Fed committee?
There are several FOMC positions to be occupied by FOMC’s composition in the middle of next year. Moreover, the markets prefer events like a Fed meeting or presidential address to Congress but sometimes it becomes difficult for investors to interpret the material information. By about mid-2018, there could be around five new Trump appointees out of 12 FOMC voting associate. Trump’s infrastructure promises to become easier under an accommodative money policy that allows some inflation to blunt interest payments.
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