Markets’ US Retail Sales data expectations indicate a 0.3% change in the figures, with US PPI at 0.1%. What do the major banks expect from today’s report?
14 December, AtoZForex – Ahead of the US retail sales report, which is scheduled at 1:30 PM GMT today, it is useful to take a look what do major banks expect from the Census Bureau of the US. This report indicates the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
US Retail Sales data expectations
Traders care about this report as it is the primary estimate of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity in the US. We will guide you through the Major Banks’ forecasts of the release.
Barclays: Retail sales at 0.4%, PPI at 0.1%
As per retails sales, Barclays expect the increase of 0.4% m/m in November. The retail sales in October 2016 have indicated 0.8% percent. Within overall sales, the bank anticipates a relative decline in auto sales and forecast retail sales in ex-autos to have advanced 0.5% m/m.
For the PPI, Barclays expects a 0.1% m/m increase and 0.9% y/y increase. More specifically, the bank sees a 0.2% m/m increase in core PPI and a 0.2% decline in energy prices with 0.1% drop in food prices. As for the industrial production, Barclays expects manufacturing IP to remain stable month-on-month.
SEB: Retail sales at 0.2%, consumer spending firm
Moving on to the second forecast from the major industry player, SEB, the bank believes that the consumer spending will be strong in the Q4. Swedish financial company sees the retail sales figures emerging at 0.2%, which is 0.1% lower than the overall market expectation.
SEB analysts mention that the consumer spending is accounting for more than one-third of the economy. Therefore, these numbers give a good chance of another quarter of 3% real GDP growth. Moreover, the income side in November employment proposes that retail sales might slow 0.2% – 0.3% gains in November, according to bank’s view. SEB believes this might pose a downside risk to the solid consensus outlook.
As for the manufacturing production, SEB sees the figures coming at -0.5.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: PPI at 0.3%
BofA is being optimistic and sees the PPI m/m figures emerging at 0.3%. Moreover, the bank believes that the Industrial production across the US changed 0.1%, with manufacturing production shift at -0.1%.
The bank further states it sees the capacity utilization will increase to 75.5% from 75.3%. The ISM
manufacturing production advanced during November, according to BofA.
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