Macro Events & News

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.4 bp at 2.833%, as the USD weakened 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp at 0.083% and yields picked up in Australia and New Zealand. Reuters reported that Trump accused China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, which followed on the heels of comments lamenting Fed’s rate hikes. Asian stock markets are mostly higher after muted gains on Wall Street yesterday. Japanese indices moved up from early lows as the Yen weakened and while the Topix is still down -0.27%, the Nikkei is up 0.20%. The Hang Seng gained 0.37%, while mainland China indices continued to outperform as state-backed funds were seen buying stocks to help stabilize the market. The CSI 300 is up 1.84%, and the Shanghai Comp 1.39% higher. US equity futures are posting slightly gains. Things may look more stable on the surface and Turkish markets at least are closed now for the rest of the week, but EM jitters continue as Venezuela’s 95% devaluation takes hold.

FX Update: The Fed has become an unexpected focus due to the president’s remarks regarding Chairman Powell, along with comments from FOMC voter Bostic, both in front of the FOMC minutes of the latest policy meeting due Wednesday, the Jackson Hole symposium beginning Thursday, and Powell’s speech on Friday. Reports that Trump again commented on his Fed chairman, wanting a less hawkish stance, along with WSJ’s indication that Fed is debating the speed of its QE unwind, knocked yields lower and led to an apparent squeeze at the long end amid warnings of a record speculative short position in the 10- and 30-year maturities. Intermediate and longer dated yields are down over 4 bps, with the 5-year challenging 2.70% and the 10-year testing 2.80%, while the long bond has slipped further below the 3% level, even as Wall Street extends gains.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – net borrowing is expected to have decreased in July by GBP2.3bln, compared to an increase of GBP4.5bln last month.

New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 – retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% on a QoQ basis, compared to an increase of 0.1% last quarter.

Support and Resistance Levels

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