Live November NFP data analysis & trade ideas


The following is live November NFP analysis and trade ideas for GBPUSD and EURCAD currency pairs. See what to look for and understand what November NFP data means for the Fed and USD.

02 December, AtoZForex – We have less than half an hour left to one of the most important monthly scheduled data – US NonFarm Payrolls. Along with Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings. The data is will be published 13:30 GMT.

Markets expect the November NFP to be published at 177k, up from the previous reading of 161k in October. This relatively slower Payroll growth was offset by 0.4% growth in Average Hourly Earnings. Today, the earnings are expected at 0.2%, while Unemployment rate should remain unchanged.

November NFP data expectations

Goldman Sachs expects November NFP data to come better than expected at 200K and unemployment rate to decline 0.1%.

Barclays, on the other hand, believes that nonfarm payrolls will appear at 175K or lower. Slightly below overall markets’ expectations of 177K. But the unemployment rate in the US should decline to 4.8%.

Lastly, Japanese financial holding company – Nomura believes that NFP figures will come at 160K, which is far lower than general markets’ expectation. In contrast to this pessimistic forecast, Nomura group is expecting the unemployment rate to decline further to 4.8% in November. The Tokyo-headquartered company also stated that we will likely see a slowdown of the growth in average hourly earnings to just 0.1% mom.

Live November NFP analysis & trade ideas

US November employment data was published as follows:

  • NonFarm Payrolls growth 178k
  • Unemployment rate 4.6%
  • Average Hourly Earnings -0.1%

If not for the disappointing hourly earning, the US November employment data would have been truly impressive. Overall, given the sharp increase in hourly earning last week, today’s US data can be considered USD positive. And should help to strengthen the case for December Fed rate hike.

The following are two November NFP trade ideas for GBPUSD and EURCAD. As a reminder of correct risk management, never risk more than 2% of your account per trade for typical market orders and as low as 1% when trading during news.

EURCAD technical analysis into November NFP

We have a potential short order for EURCAD from 1.419 resistance level.

eurcad-technical-analysis Hourly EURCAD technical analysis into November NFP data (click to zoom in)

The pair continues to form lower lows and lower highs, turning both 50 & 200 hourly moving averages to the downside. Therefore we could expect the downtrend to continue and aim for the psychological support level at 1.41.

GBPUSD technical analysis into November NFP

The only USD denominated currency pair with risk/reward favorable trade opportunity I see is GBPUSD.

Hourly EURCAD technical analysis into November NFP data (click to zoom in) Hourly GBPUSD technical analysis into November NFP data (click to zoom in)

As the pair continues to trade higher, we could look to long GBPUSD from current levels. Although a better risk/reward trade opportunity is to buy from 1.26 area. We could aim towards the nearby resistance level at 1.269.

What trade opportunities ahead of November NFP data have you spotted? Share your ideas in the chat section below.

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