LIVE NFP Forex analysis & trade opportunities (updated)


The following is live NonFarm Payrolls Forex analysis and two NFP Forex trade opportunities with limit orders for Gold and USDJPY.

06 October, AtoZForex – Less than an hour left to one of the most important monthly scheduled data – US Non farm payrolls, due to be published 13:30 BST. But will NFP be the data traders should be looking for?

As US labour market is nearing the full strength, the Fed has appears to be comfortable with job addition of 150k NFP reading; thus anything above it can be viewed as USD positive.  In addition, we could expect the market focus to shift to weekly working hours and wage growth.

Investment bank NFP expectations

Analysts expect US payrolls to increase by 171k. While the unemployment rate should remain at 4.9% and Average Hourly Earnings m/m should nudge higher by 0.2%.

BNP Paribas, meanwhile, expects the NFP data to come slightly below the market consensus at 160k and stated further that:

“We would not expect this number to drive further Fed repricing nor would we expect more definitive guidance from Fed Chair Yellen when she speaks next week.”

BofA Merrill even notched their forecast lower than BNPP, expecting the private payroll growth only at 135k and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged in September at 4.9%. In terms of the average hourly earnings, the bank expects the data come in higher by 0.2% m/m, increasing the y/y rate to 2.6% from 2.4% in August.

In contrast to the previous two investment banks, Barclays expect a gain of 185k coming from the US private sector, while the US government payrolls will supply the remaining 15k. As per the unemployment rate, Barclays expect a one-tenth decline to 4.8%, while the average hourly earnings to notch higher by 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.

LIVE NFP Forex analysis & trade opportunities

The following are two NFP Forex trade opportunities for USDJPY and Gold. As a reminder of correct risk management, never risk more than 2% of your account per trade for typical market orders and as low as 1% when trading during news.

USDJPY NFP Forex trade opportunity

Looking at the Yen on hourly timeframe, we can see MACD and price action divergence warning of possible correction. In addition, the price has formed a lower high.

LIVE NFP Forex analysis & trade opportunities USDJPY NFP Forex analysis (click to zoom in)

Therefore, below 103.5 level we could expect the pair to further correct towards 103.2 and possible to 102.6. Better risk reward ratio USDJPY order is from 103.85* resistance.

Gold NFP Forex trade opportunity

Similarly like USDJPY, Gold portrays identical characteristics on hourly timeframe.

LIVE NFP Forex analysis & trade opportunities Gold NFP Forex analysis (click to zoom in)

Therefore, risk reward favors longing Gold from 1250 level towards 1270 with 1262 as a first target.

With these two NFP Forex trade opportunities you should not risk more than 2% combined. For result of previous Live NFP analysis see here.

As for today's analysis, USDJPY missed the target by 4.2 pips. While although Gold reached its first target, the order was not triggered as the priced only reached 1251.51 level.

US employment data highlights

Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 156k, relatively neutral reading. Average Hourly Earnings m/m increased as expected 0.2%. While Unemployment rate decreased to 5%; hence the immediate USD correction. Lastly, the average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.4.

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