Live Brexit Updates (Big Picture)


23 June, AtoZForexMillions of Britons are voting today to decide whether the UK will remain in the European Union. Voting is open until 10 pm BST, yet the result will only be available on early Friday morning. This post, meanwhile, will be updated during the day continuously to give live Brexit updates for AtoZForex followers.

Depending on how fast the votes will be counted, voting results are expected to be published between 4am to 5am Friday morning. What many traders do not expect is that independent of the Brexit result, EU leaders will be forced to have a meeting over the weekend to discuss any concerns and potential risks to the economy.

Live Brexit Updates

17:00 Bank stocks are the biggest losers after the Brexit vote. Morgan Stanley down 8 percent, Citigroup down 7 percent, Prudential down 6 percent. It seems like Brexit is becoming the next Financial Crisis catalyst! 

16:40 Neigel Farage calls the £350m Brexit bus campaign as a “mistake”. 17 million people supported Brexit in yesterday’s referendum, Good Morning Britain’s Susanna Reid commented and wondered if there was anything hidden in Brexit supporter’s campaigns.

15:34 Standard & Poor’s has confirmed that it is reviewing the UK’s top-rated AAA credit rating. The agency fears that Britain’s growth, external funding, and the public balance sheet will suffer.

“A vote to leave would, in our view, deter investment in the economy, decrease official demand for sterling reserves, and put the U.K.’s financial services sector at a competitive disadvantage compared with other global financial centres.”

15:26  Donald J. Trump commented on Brexit‬ results from his golf course in Turnberry, Scotland.

“I think it will be a good thing — you’re taking your country back. You’re going to let people you want into your country,” adding “what happened should have happened and I think they’ll (UK) end up being stronger for it.”

15:15 Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said it was “democratically unacceptable” that Scotland faced the prospect of being taken out of the Eurozone against its will.

“It is, therefore, a statement of the obvious that a second referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table,” she said.

14:58 Following 1800 pip downfall, Cable has stabilized around 1.37 area. With low liquidity and markets in shock, we can expect normal trading to resume only at the end of next week. This implies that smaller time frame technical analysis will not be as effective.

Meanwhile, from the larger picture, we could expect Fibonacci 161.8% and custom Fibonacci 188% retracement levels at 1.383 and 1.365 respectively to act as boundaries for the next leg in the direction of a subsequent Fibonacci level. In between the two boundaries, price is likely to continue fluctuating rapidly.

live Brexit updates GBPUSD H1, Live Brexit updates (click to zoom in)

14:18 It’s now estimated that the GBP reaction to UK referendum is worst than in 16th September 1992, aka the Black Wednesday. It was the day when British Conservative Government was forced to take off the British pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after not being able to keep it above its agreed lower limit within the ERM.

12:48 Right before the UK EU referendum, global investment banks gave several warnings about the possible doomsday scenarios. The warnings stated that Brexit can bring the economy’s country into recession. Right after the polls were announced HSBC, the biggest bank in the UK, shares fell 11%, while another British bank – Standard Chartered (SCBFF), which mainly focuses its operations in Asia, lost almost 12%.

12:38 European equities have fallen under serious sell-off. STOXX Europe 600 have fallen more than 6.3%. FTSE 100 devalued by 4.35%. DAX is lower 5.7%, and CAC 40 is down 7.37%.

11:36 David Cameron Resigns after the majority votes Leave.

“The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered. I do not think it would be right for me to be the captain who steers the country to its next destination. I am honoured to have been prime minister of this country for six years,” David Cameron said peaking today at Downing Street.

10:06 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said it is ready to supply money to the markets if needed.

“The BoJ, in close co-operation with relevant domestic and foreign authorities, will continue to carefully monitor how the would affect global financial markets,” the Bank’s governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said in a statement.

JPY appreciated more than 5% as investors ran for safety. More expensive currency hurts Japanese exports and now further BoJ easing is likely.

09:47 The Bank of England (BoE) said it was “monitoring developments closely” and will take “all necessary steps” to support monetary stability.

09:23 Final results are: Remain 48.1%, Leave 51.9%. 382 out of 382 areas declared. 33551984 votes counted. It’s official, UK is out!

08:35 Results are: Remain 48.2%, Leave 51.8%. 378 out of 382 areas declared. So far 32926300 votes counted.

08:30 At a Brexit party yesterday evening, UKIP leader Nigel Farage told supporters: “If the predictions are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, and a victory for decent people.”

“Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day.”

He suggested the PM should resign “immediately” if the UK votes to leave the EU.

If the UK opts to leave, it could indeed force David Cameron to resign and have a major impact on who succeeds him as a new prime minister.

08:08 Results are: Remain 48.2%, Leave 51.8%. 374 out of 382 areas declared. So far 32527606 votes counted.

07:59 Results are: Remain 48.3%, Leave 51.7%. 371 out of 382 areas declared. So far 32064219 votes counted.

07:36 Results are: Remain 48.2%, Leave 51.8%. 370 out of 382 areas declared. So far 30761107 votes counted.

00:00 Polls are officially closed now. We will be looking for results to be announced until 10:00 am BST.

23:23 FCA is announced to be on high alert on expected post EU referendum trading frenzy.

23:20 WorldWideMarkets Online Trading Chief Market Strategist Joseph Trevisani commented: “The British vote on EU membership is  close but markets have already priced in the exit referendum’s failure.  The British Pound is almost 6 percent above its recent  low against the dollar, the euro has gained half that. European and American equities have soared and bond yields are modestly higher.  Are markets making a mistake given the potentially historic ballot? Probably not.  If the referendum is approved and Britain chooses to leave, the gains of the last week will be swiftly reversed.  Beyond that caution is likely to rule. The departure of the UK from the EU would be a protracted affair, negotiated by committee and played out over years. After the initial reaction, markets will wait for direction from governments and central banks. That direction will be long in coming.”

23: 19 There is an increasing number of people sharing their dissatisfaction that there is no EU referendum exit-poll. Some voters have started to question the polls’ honesty.

22:51 Kirklees Council polling booth has now been re-opened as the suspect has been confirmed by the police has no connection with the EU referendum.

22:36 A 19 year old man was arrested in connection with the stabbing incident has now been confirmed that has no connection with the voting opinion.

22:30 Brexit Supporter former London Mere commented the following

“Polls close in 90 minutes, so obviously we don’t have time for long emails. If you have voted leave, thank you.

If you haven’t yet, please do. And please email, text or phone all your friends to Vote Leave.

Don’t lose this chance to make today our Independence Day!!!

Thank you so much.”

19:35 Vasilis Tsaprounis, Managing Director at Magna-Trust Securities commented “We do strongly believe that irrespective the result, the cross will loss it’s strength moving downwards. The cable has moved drastically upwards last week and a lot of take profits (sell orders) will be triggered if the outcome be positive. Therefore, since liquidity will be pretty much dry amid exit polls, we suggest either being short or waiting on the fence to see cross moving downwards to 1.4500 and 1.4000 area and become a ‘buyer’ there.

19:15 A man has been found stabbed in Waverly Road area is expected to be due to his EU referendum opinion.

18:40 Most probably by now, you most have gotten tired of reading all the Brexit news. Instead of reading more relevant news, watch now the video commentary on the impact of the EU referendum and risk management:

Live Brexit Commentary, Yagub Rahimov

18:13 The Chief Market Strategist of ADS Securities London Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury has commented that: “Global equities have been on the rise since the beginning of the week as the latest polls suggest that Bremain campaign is leading with more than 55% support, while support for the leave campaign has eased back to 45%. Global equities across Asia and Europe, as well as US futures are up at the moment, while the FTSE100 is cautiously up by 0.6% so far. The performance of traditional safe haven assets are also suggesting that Brexit fears are fading. Gold has declined by -0.43% so far and is trading below $1260, while Silver is slightly higher at $17.30. The Japanese yen is weakening across the board, and USDJPY is trading well above 105.50’s.

The British Pound is leading currencies with gains of more than 2% across the board, rising the most against the Japanese Yen with +2.5% of gains. GBPUSD has been rising since the beginning of the day, reaching as high as 1.4950’s, but the price action remains incredibly volatile. With just over half the day’s voting completed, it appears that traders and investors are optimistic  with Bremain sentiment controlling markets. It is still early, however, and the next few hours should give us clearer view.

For the time being, it can be said that Bremain is almost priced in to the market, and while at the moment we do not see significant upward gains in equities, this is likely to happen gradually in the next few days. However, if Brexit campaigners succeed, traders may need to brace for panic moves.”

17:34 Sergey Kochergin, analyst of Exness commented: Currently, financial markets demonstrate a strong demand for risky assets. By 11.00 GMT Thursday, pound tested the level of $1.49, yen, serving as a risk indicator, weakened to 105.7 yen per dollar, etc. Investors are betting on the UK staying in the EU. The negative scenario (Brexit), if does happen, implies a decline in pound below $1.35 and a strengthening of the yen – to 95-100 yen per dollar during a few trading sessions. For the UK ,exit from the EU will be painful, as it exports about 50-60% of all the goods and services, especially for the banking sector.”

17:26 Are you curious about how the actual EU referendum poll looks like? AtoZForex has managed to get a picture of the poll that millions of Britons need to fill in today:Brexit poll question

 

17:02 Ahead the EU leaders’ summit of next week, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel has just informed that she is hoping for the UK to remain in Europe. Considering that she wants all EU members after the so-called ‘Brexit’ vote to discuss the bloc’s future, instead of only the six founding members:

“Of course we hope for a decision in which the citizens of Great Britain remain part of the European Union. I think the deliberations should be continued with 28 (members) where possible, otherwise with 27 – but my hope is that we can perhaps stay with 28.”

16:40 Across the Atlantic, the US-based Forest Park FX Head of Sales commented the following: “No matter what the outcome of the Bexit vote is I believe the GBP will strengthen.  On one side if the UK leaves the EU they are separating themselves from financially unstable countries like Spain and Greece.  This should strengthen investor’s perception of the UK economy leading to a stronger GBP.  On the other side of the table there has been so much uncertainty about which way the vote will go.  Generally speaking when people are uncertain about something there is a flight to safety.  As the vote comes to a close we should continue to see an increase in the GBP as volatility decreases and investors get back into their GBP positions.”

16:24 Naeem Aslam, Chief Market Analyst of ThinkForex commented: “The latest polls have pushed the British pound higher while voters are busy in voting. If you look at the odds, which are dominantly driving the rally for the British and pushing the bond yield lower in periphery, they are suggesting that Remain group has over 84% odds stacked in their favour. This is a massive number and not something which can not be ignored.

A massive surprise will be if the bookies got this wrong this time and this may trigger such an intense sell off in the market, which traders are not prepared for.”

16:15 Gal Ackerman of Trade360 commented: “The European markets are trading with positive momentum for all EUR and GBP currency pairings. This means that both traders and investors appear to believe that the UK will remain in the EU. Our Crowd Feed indicates that traders are moving to BUY positions on the GBP, which strengthens this analysis. 

“This screen shot was taken at 10:35 GMT. In addition we see a lot of faith in the Global stock markets at the moment as there’s a clear rise in long positions on stocks such as DAX 30, Nasdaq, S&P 500 with strong indications of buy rather than sell positions.”

EURGBP Crowd trading, Trade360

15:24 Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment Research of FXPRIMUS commented: I can’t overemphasize how important this Brexit vote is for the markets. The market seems to be discounting “Remain.” What that means is if the vote does go that way, the relief rally is likely to be modest. On the other hand, if they vote to leave, there is likely to be chaos. That’s not what the market is prepared for, so it would come as a surprise. The big problem is the implication for the whole European project, the “ever closer union” that the EU is pledged to pursue. It really throws the whole EU into question. This vote has the potential to be the biggest market event of the year.” 

15:13 Cable has surged this morning on the back of a shift towards Remain. As the pair continues to make higher hourly highs and higher lows, further scope remain towards Fibonacci 150% retracement levels at 1.496. An hourly close above Fibonacci 138.2% could be seen as a positive sign. Meanwhile, immediate support levels falls on Fibonacci 123.6% retracement level at 1.480.

live brexit updates GBPUSD H1, Live Brexit technical update (click to zoom in)

14:38 The Telegraph comments that older voters are more likely to back Brexit, with almost twice as many people aged over 65 set to vote for leaving the EU than those under 35.

14:04 According to the exclusive Brexit Poll provided by Ipsos-Mori: “Remains now have a 4pt lead vs last poll showing a 6pt lead for Leave; Ipsos-Mori estimate a 74% chance of a Remain vote

13:31 Adamos Anastasiou of FCMForex commented: “The most important factor to keep in mind for the EU Referendum is that Forex Market is going to survive and will be there after the actual voting takes place to provide us chances for better entries. Thus, traders should look in the markets in a longer term perspective.

Two scenarios are to come the day after referendum: 

  • Should we see a “Bremain” result, then the discussion of raising rates by Bank of England will return and is likely to keep currency pair on upside.
  • Should the UK decide to walk away from EU then the GBPUSD is most likely to dip back to 1.4000. Market has already priced in a higher possibility for UK to hold its EU membership. Thus, a result for exiting would cause huge losses in the British pound, first support is at 1.4000 but we would see lower levels than that in the short-term in a case of an exit.”

13:22 Institutions are following liquidity related issues. While Euro and GBP liquidity is expected to thin down, professional traders focus on safe heaven assets for trade opportunities.  Our very own, Yagub Rahimov, believes in CHF, JPY pairs and Gold to appreciate after the voting results are updated.

13:10 Final forecast from the historical referendums and polls based method estimate that ‘Remain’ could reasonably be expected to get anywhere between 42% and 62% of votes. Electionsetc themselves “forecast probability that Remain will win the referendum is 64 per cent.”

13:00 Meanwhile, the average of six polls from 16/06/16 to 22/06/16, also know as The poll of Poll, estimates a split decision of 50% voting to ‘Leave’ and 50% to ‘Remain’ in the Eurozone.

12:45 The lates Brexit opinion poll of YouGov was merely in favour to stay: remain 51%, leave 49%

Recent YouGov polls were somewhat similar:

June 19 leave 44% and 42% remain;

June 17 remain 44% and 43% leave;

June 16 leave 44% and remain 42%;

12:40 Today is also a big day for Scotland. UK’s membership of the Eurozone is a huge issue north of the border, where there is talk of a second independence referendum in the case of Brexit. In addition, Scotland is expecting a visit from Donald Trump, the Republican US Presidential candidate.

12:35: Eliza from STO commented: “While two opinion polls released late on Wednesday showed that the ‘Remain’ camp had gained a lead in the closely divided campaign, trading activity during the Asian session remained thin and cautious.

12:30 A record 46.5 million voters have signed up to answer the single question. Meanwhile, it will be prohibited to publish any opinion or exit polls during the day as long as the polls are open for people to vote. Currently, there are no plans by broadcasters for an exit poll since the margin of error is expected to be too great. However, Britain’s hedge fund industry is commissioning private exit polls to get an early warning of the result. Therefore, traders are recommended to be careful trading GBP based instruments towards the end of the day, particularly past 10 pm BST, since low market liquidity can result in large price spikes.

12:00 The rally is divided into two camps Brexit supporters and Bremain supporters.

Supporters of the UK to remain a member of the EU:

There has been an overnight rally by almost all the EU countries in support of the UK remaining as a part of the EU. Supporters of the UK to remain a member of the EU include many globally influential politicians as well as business people.

  • Governor of the Bank of England
  • International Monetary Fund
  • Institute for Fiscal Studies
  • Confederation of British Industry
  • Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU
  • President of the United States of America
  • Eight former US Treasury Secretaries
  • President of China
  • Prime Minister of India
  • Prime Minister of Canada
  • Prime Minister of Australia
  • Prime Minister of Japan
  • Prime Minister of New Zealand
  • The chief executives of Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
  • Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations
  • All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties)
  • Virtually all reputable and recognised economists
  • The Prime Minister of the UK
  • The leader of the Labour Party
  • The Leader of the Liberal Democrats
  • The Leader of the Green Party
  • The Leader of the Scottish National Party
  • The leader of Plaid Cymru
  • Leader of Sinn Fein
  • Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly
  • The Secretary General of the TUC
  • Unison
  • National Union of Students
  • National Union of Farmers
  • Stephen Hawking
  • Chief Executive of the NHS
  • Director of Europol
  • David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation
  • Former Directors of GCHQ
  • Secretary General of Nato
  • Church of England
  • Church in Scotland
  • Church in Wales
  • Friends of the Earth
  • Greenpeace
  • Director General of the World Trade Organisation
  • WWF
  • World Bank
  • OECD
  • Ajay Shah (Niyanta)

Main Brexit supporters

  • Ex London Mere – Boris Johnson (Aiming to become PM if Brexit happens)
  • A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
  • Leader of UKIP
  • BNP
  • Britain First
  • Donald Trump
  • Keith Chegwin
  • David Icke
  • Dhimant Shah
  • Preeti Patel MP
  • Sir Ian Botham

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