Key Forex and Crypto fundamentals this week


This week has a bunch of economic data releases from most major countries. Besides the BREXIT uncertainties, the other vital announcements are the FOMC Statement, Non-Farm payroll, and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. 

Australian CPI

Australia will release the latest inflation stats early on Wednesday. It will reveal the trade-sensitivity of the economy for the US-China war escalated over the summer. The quarterly CPI is expected to decline from 0.6% to 0.5%, while the Trimmed Mean CPI q/q is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%.

However, the CPI will have a big impact on the next economic decision of RBA. Market sentiments currently give a 50% chance for another rate cut by the end of this year. The Aussie has recovered slightly as trade tensions eased. However, the overall outlook remains dull, as there are no convincing signs of economic improvement.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Wednesday is the eventful day of the week. ADP’s Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show the private sector hiring in October. Currently, the expectations are a decrease of 125K from 135K seen in September. The release will hint toward the other critical official jobs report. Currently, Job growth has been slowing down.

US Advance GDP q/q

The US advance GDP q/q will release after 15 minutes interval of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The first release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter is expected to decline from 2.0% to 1.6%.

 A drop in manufacturing and investment sectors mostly influences a drop below 2-2.5%. Moreover, the disappointing Durable Goods Orders figures for September also had an impact on weak GDP figures.

BOC Monetary Policy Report & Overnight Rate  

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also decide the overnight rate on Wednesday. However, there is not a projection of change yet.

The domestic economy of CANADA has indeed been stable compared to the other countries in a desert of global weakness in recent quarters. The latest business survey by the BoC showed that the economy would remain optimistic, reinforcing this positive narrative.

Practically there is no chance for a rate cut this week and only a 25% chance for a reduction by June next year. The nation’s GDP numbers for August will be released on Thursday and expected to increase from 0.0% to 0.2%.

FOMC Statement

The last event of the Super Wednesday is FOMC Statement. Bond markets pointed a chance that the Fed would cut rates for the third time in a row.

Richard Clarida was the latest speaker before the bank’s “quiet period”. He did not mention any rate reduction in his speech. However, Clarida was silence about the pricing in bond markets, which implies that the Fed will cut rates again. If the bank keeps rates unchanged, the dollar could be determined against most of the currencies. However, the USD/JPY may fall alongside stock markets while cut may push USD/JPY higher.

Jerome Powell will explain the decision in a press meeting. Powell’s explanations have occasionally confused reporters and investors. He may struggle to explain the three consecutive cuts, which may increase the market volatility.

BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

In Japan, the nation’s central bank will arrange its meeting on Thursday. The markets seem split on Governor Kuroda’s decision on the incentive program. Currently, there is a 50% probability for a small 10 basis points rate cut.

 The economic data suggests that more easing is necessary. Inflation is moving in the adverse territory and is close to 0% again. The exports are contracting as the trade war damages global demand. Moreover, the recent sales tax hike will likely restrain household spending.

 Additionally, if the BoJ does nothing, then the yen would likely spike higher.

US Personal Spending m/m

Besides the Fed decision on Thursday, Investors will eye the bank’s preferred inflation gauge Core Personal Consumption Expenditure. The Personal Spending m/m is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.3% for October 2019.

However, Personal spending, Personal income, and weekly jobless claims figures are also prominent. 

Non-Farm Employment Change

On Friday, the Non-Farm Payrolls for October will be in the fame. September’s NFP was quite disappointing having an increase of only 136K jobs, causing worries of a slowdown in the labor market. The annual wage growth has slipped to 2.9%, which is the lowest since October last year. Currently, the NFP is expected to decrease from 136K to 90K while the Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 3.5% to 3.6%

If job growth falls below 100,000, the result may reflect another chance of a rate cut in December.

Crypto weekly outlook – ETHUSD, BCHUSD, LTCUSD

Most of the cryptocurrencies are facing bullish pressure from the last few days, which may continue this week as well but after certain corrections. For bullish sentiment this week, the price need strong intervention by buyers to make it push higher in the process. The news from China about the Cryptocurrency Lay might be the reason behind the move.

ETHUSD Analysis

There was a sharp rally in Ethereum towards the critical resistance level at $184. Currently, the price is on a correction, but it remained above $175 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

$190 is the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $199 to $175. For this week, this level will play a significant role as the buyers are struggling to overcome the level. 

Therefore, an upside break with a daily close above the $190 resistance is likely to open the doors for more gains towards $222. 

BCHUSD Analysis

After a lot of struggle, Bitcoin Cash manages a daily close above the resistance at $240. Now the next level to face is the $276, previously acted as a support level. This week, a $276 level will play a significant role. 

If Bitcoin Cash manages a daily close above $276, the next level to look at is $331 & $355. On the bearish side, A bullish rejection with a daily close at $276 may drag the price towards $193.

LTCUSD Analysis

Like other cryptocurrencies, Litecoin manages a bullish intervention at the beginning of this week. The yesterday daily candle closes above the 20 EMA with MACD divergence in play.

The potential bullish possibility will continue If the price manages a daily close above the $60 level. The next level to reach the price is $78. On the downside, a bullish rejection at $60 will drag the price towards $45.

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