The following are possible impactful fundamental news weekend coverage for the upcoming week of December 19 to 23. Get focused on the key upcoming news events and fundamental developments.
16 December, AtoZForex – After FED Chair Yellen’s hawkish statement on Wednesday, we look ahead of the new trading week with the focus on impactful fundamental news. As it is the last week before Christmas, low volatility cannot be ruled out. Starting the week with German IFO news.
Impactful fundamental news on Tuesday
Tuesday Asian session is expected to be rather impactful with two main economies of the eastern hemisphere.
Early morning at 12:30 am GMT, we have the Australian monetary policy meeting minutes announcement in line with the mid year Economic and Fiscal outlook. This outlook is released annually and provides a updated economic outlook and growth forecasts. Ahead of the Trump administration take over in January and a hard line stance by the new USA government against China may possibly impact the AUD. We will also be looking into commentary about Trans Pacific Trade Deal as well and if Australia will be considering the Chinese trade deal initiation.
There is no expectation of any rate hikes in the short to medium term.
Impactful fundamental news for AUDUSD
From technical analysis perspective, we can expect further bearish development for AUDUSD as the first support is at 0.7160 level on 138.2% Fibonacci Retracement zone. This also means that we could possibly be looking for bullish correction wave from AUDUSD from next week onward supported by (expected) thin line of liquidity in the market.
Also, on Tuesday we have BoJ Policy rate announcement, Monetary policy statement and a BoJ press conference. Expect BoJ to keep interest rates at the same level. With the FOMC December rate hike decision and those planned 2017 rate hikes, investors expect BoJ to take a cautious approach.
It is like that the BoJ will wait and see the full extend of the Trump fiscal policies for the coming four years. Japanese Yen meanwhile should continue to weaken and that should boost the Japanese exports. However, if the USA policy is to curb imports, it may not bear well for the Japanese economy nor the JPY, since most of the major currencies have weakened against the US dollar.
Impactful fundamental news for USDJPY
Overall, from Technical Analysis perspective we could expect to see USDJPY bullish trend to continue. For the time being we can see a major resistance at 120.50 zone which falls onto 161.8% Fibonacci Retracement zone as well as the 120 psychological resistance zone.
Wednesday is mostly impactful from Crude oil perspective as the US Crude oil inventories are about to be announced. It is worth noting that the cold arctic weather is entering the US over the weekend, thus we could expect to see some decline in crude oil inventories and you know what it means.
Decline in Crude oil inventories = Rise in Crude oil prices!
The crude is in any case in a major dilemma as investors expect to see properly aligned OPEC production cut. So, let’s watch and see what will happen on Wednesday the 21st.
Impactful fundamental news on Thursday
On Thursday, we have key events out of both Canada and USA involving BoC and the FED.
At 1:30 pm we have the inflationary data and Core retail sales. Investors expect inflation to remain near or at the current levels. If we see a greater than expected figure, we will see CAD to appreciate.
From technical analysis perspective, I am expecting to see a double top formation for USDCAD. Which stands for further bullish run. Hence, I do not have much of a rush to short the loonie.
With the annualized GDP figures expected to show an increase (3.3% vs previous 3.2%) can only be good for the greenback. Even if Durable Goods orders come in below par. Traders could expect USD to remain strong, but correction is inevitable.
Impactful fundamental news for USDCAD
Impactful fundamental news on Friday
We end the week with the Canadian Gross Domestic Product, with an expected rise, the CAD would appreciate.
AtoZForex note: Public holiday in Japan
Which other impactful fundamental news will you be looking into?