How does US retail sales impact EURUSD? When will the figures be released?
15 October, GKFX – Monday's US economic docket highlights the key release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a solid 0.5% m/m rise in September as against a modest 0.1% m/m growth recorded in the previous month.
Meanwhile, core retail sales (excluding automobiles), which advanced 0.3% in August, are projected to have grown by 0.3% on a monthly basis and the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is seen expanding by 0.4% m/m during the reported period.
Deviation impact on EURUSD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. In the last five releases, the EURUSD pair moved, on an average, 30-pips in the 15-minutes after the data release and 52-pips in the following 4-hours.
How US Retail Sales Impact EURUSD
A lower than expected reading would mark the second consecutive month of disappointment and keep exerting some additional downward pressure on the already weaker US Dollar. The anti-dollar flow might now assist the pair to finally break through the 100-day SMA barrier, currently near the 1.1615 region and aim towards testing the 1.1655-60 supply zone.
Alternatively, a stronger print should provide some immediate respite for the USD bulls, with the pair more likely to slide back towards testing the 1.1540-35 horizontal support. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair below the key 1.1500 psychological mark and pave the way for additional intraday weakness.
About US Retail Sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales.
Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
This article was written by analysts at GKFX. The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice.
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