How Does the Canadian GDP Report Impact USDCAD?

November 30, GKFX – Friday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for October, scheduled to be published at 13:30 GMT.

Statistics Canada will also release the annualized quarterly growth rate, making this event more significant than the ones including only monthly data. 

Consensus estimates point to a quarterly growth rate of 2.0% during the third quarter of 2018, indicating a notable slowdown from 2.9% q/q growth recorded in the previous quarter. 

Analysts at TD Securities explains: “Non-residential investment and net exports will provide an offset though the latter is driven by weaker imports. Industry-level growth for September should print at 0.1%, in line with market estimates, on a drag from the goods sector which will provide a soft handoff to the fourth quarter.”

Deviation Impact on USDCAD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction on the pair, in case of a deviation between +0.82 to -0.82, is likely to be around 40-pips during the first 15-minutes and could get extended to 84-86 pips in the following 4-hours. 

How Canadian GDP Report Impact USDCAD

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels ahead of the key release:

"The recent peak of 1.3360 serves as a line of resistance. It is followed by 1.3380, the peak of 2018 so far. The next levels date back to the first half of 2017. 1.3430 capped provided support in June 2017. Further above, 1.3540 was a stubborn cap earlier in the year. 1.3645 follows."

"1.3260 capped the pair in mid-November. 1.3225 was a swing high at the end of the summer. 1.3175 provided support in mid-November and 1.3125 was another trough in that month. The next line of support is only at 1.3050 which was a low point in early November. It is followed by 1.2970," he adds further.

About the Canada GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada.

The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.


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