Gold rallied during the London and New York sessions as risk-off sentiments resumed. The following Gold Elliott wave analysis looks at what could happen next.
December 02, 2019 | AtoZ Markets – The yellow metal closed the last week around 1460. The market remained steady around the price level in the Asian session today (Monday). However, after a fast dip to come close to 1450 support level, the non-yielding metal surged toward the 1466 intraday resistance level in a move that spanned across the European and American sessions. The price is currently retreating to 1462. If the risk-off sentiments continue, we should see the Gold price break above 1467 toward 1480.
The US-China trade conflict remains the major risk driver. The market mood oscillates with headlines from the trade talks. The market mood is currently subsiding thus giving risk-off assets some room to recover from last week losses. The week started with the US and China coming tough yet again. This is coming after encouraging reports from the two parties last week.
China’s global times reported earlier that phase one of the deal, due to be completed later this month, must include US tariff rollback. This came after another report that China is about to sanction some US Non-profit organizations and also ready to halt the US Navy from Hong Kong visit. US interference in Hong Kong was deemed to be a possible obstacle to any agreement later in December. It’s now suggested that if the phase one deal will happen, it will most probably come later than expected – earliest is the last week of December.
Gold Elliott wave analysis
Technically, the long term bearish corrective wave 4 started at 1557 and has lasted for three months. In the previous updates, we tracked the bearish move as a zigzag/double zigzag pattern. In the last update, we used the chart below. (Charting tools are from TradingView)
The price rallied above the 1463 top after the lack of momentum to break below 1450. As the new chart below shows, we will most likely see a gradual rally toward 1480-1485 before the next dip.
The chart above shows price forming a ‘W’ technical reversal pattern with the base at 1450 and neckline at 1467. If it breaks above 1467, we should see the risk-off effect continue and Gold advance toward 1480-1485. If the risk-on mood returns afterwards, Gold price should plunge toward 1400 depending on the magnitude of the driver.