The Gold price rallied to 1465 on Wednesday following President Trump’s speech. The following Gold Elliott wave analysis November 13 update looks at what could happen next.
November 13, 2019 | AtoZ Markets – The Gold price dropped to 1443 on Tuesday around an important Fibonacci level. However, it surged to 1465 afterwards after President Trump’s tough remarks on the US-China trade deal. The yellow metal could climb to the 1474 support-turned-resistance level before the next move. The market will focus on the US inflation data coming later today and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Thursday.
The US-China trade deal has been the major driver of the market mood in the last 15 months. While the first phase of trade agreement was expected to be completed, President Trump has now warned that the US will not bow to China’s demand as the former has the upper hand. In the much-anticipated Tuesday’s speech, he bashed China and even threatened more tariffs. Prior to the speech, he had already denied tariffs reversal. All these have led to new concerns as to how far resolution has truly gone. The markets are feeling the heat already as stock prices began to fall slightly. There is also an increasing demand in the safety assets like Gold, CHF and JPY. The headlines are not going anywhere throughout this quarter until at least the completion of the first phase of the trade deal.
Read Also: How do Gold ETFs work?
Technically, we should see higher rallies. However for this to happen, there should be a breakdown in talks or the US going into another trade war. The drop from 1557 looks corrective and the long-term bullish trend should resume. Meanwhile, the reversal level could be around 1443 or 1425. Currently, the price has surged above 1451 and 1458 resistance levels. We might see a retest of 1474. In the last update, we used the chart below (All the charts used below are from TradingView).
At 1443, we have the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave a (circled) from wave b. The price has bounced off 1443 as the Gold Elliott wave analysis November 13 chart below shows.
Despite the current surge, speculative buyers should be cautious. It’s more conservative to wait for the bullish swing to bend and then take advantage of the next upside swing above the top of the current swing. On the other hand, we might still see Gold price drop after resistance around 1474, to 1420 or even the 1400 handle (the base of the corrective channel)