Today’s GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis shows that it is looking for its way amidst a shortage of new catalysts from the UK. The shrinking gap between the Conservatives and Labor leaders in the December polls is compounded by pressure on the British prime minister. That is to issue a report on Russia’s interference.
13 November 2019, AtoZMarkets – The absence of major catalysts in the UK has recently tamed GBPUSD movements. Also, the market’s fear of key data/events contributes to the latest inactivity.
GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis – 13 November 2019
Following the mixed reading of British employment details, the GBPUSD has witnessed another negative point in the form of pressure on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. That is to issue a report regarding Russian interference in the Brexit referendum of 2016. This new surge can be confirmed by the story of the UK Mirror. That quotes an anonymous witness. He/she alleges that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has deployed online trolls to aggravate the political conflict in the UK.
Elsewhere, trade concerns between the United States and China are worsening. Because the Trump administration is struggling for a successful phase one talks. They indirectly threat to increase tariffs on the failure to do so. Also, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision-makers have been very optimistic. And they have strengthened the US dollar (USD).
Prices are now waiting for data from the consumer price index (CPI) for October in the UK. That is also before monitoring the US CPI for the same month as well as the testimony of Fed Chairman Powell. US inflation figures are less likely to deviate. And, the Fed chairman will be closely watched to confirm the recent optimism of policymakers.
UK CPI and Inflation Data
On the other hand, the UK CPI would weaken to 1.6% vs. 1.7% before on an annual basis, while probably decreasing to -0.1% compared to + 0.1% earlier on an MoM basis. TD Securities analysts said that they expect the CPI to rise from 1.8% in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%). The deceleration in inflation is entirely attributable to energy prices, energy prices for households will be affected by the OFGEM ceiling, while fuel prices should also decrease somewhat on an annual basis. Without taking into account volatility, they expect the core CPI to remain at 1.7% YoY (mkt 1.7%).
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