The fundamental analysis of today’s GBPUSD shows that GBPUSD failed to encourage positive political headlines from the UK due to doubts over the US-China trade deal. Data on second-tier US employment will decorate the economic calendar.
06 November 2019, AtoZMarkets – Despite increasing chances for the conservative leader to win the December snap election, GBPUSD is under downward pressure as pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal maintains the strength of the greenback intact. The cable carries the rounds at 1.2880 at the press time of the pre-London opening on Wednesday.
GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis – 06 November 2019
The United States (US) and China are still far from reaching an agreement, even of “phase one”. To the trade, pessimism is added the intact support of the dragon nation to the firm position of Hong Kong against the protesters.
On the other hand, the political environment in the UK is very much in favor of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The leader of the Brexit party is finally negotiating an agreement with the Tories. The deal is to withdraw some of its 600 candidates to support the ruling party. That won the December elections. However, his condition of not supporting the Tory leader’s Brexit agreement in parliaments seems to impoverish optimism.
In addition, the European Union (EU) diplomats such as Brexit Chief Negotiator Michael Barnier and European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker continue to display worrying signs of the departure of the United Kingdom.
While trade/Brexit headlines are likely to continue to dominate market movements in the short term. In recent speculation, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will stop cutting rates underscores the importance of the speeches of John Williams and Charles Evans.
On the data front, the first measures of non-farm productivity and unit labor costs in the United States for the third quarter (Q3) will be closely watched. Because it is after the JOLTS Job Openings questioned the American optimism in employment last Tuesday.
UK Small Manufacturers Gloomiest Since Brexit Referendum
A survey released Wednesday by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), British small manufacturing firms are the most pessimistic. Since the Brexit referendum in 2016 amidst British political uncertainty and imminent trade war risks. The CBI’s index of optimism for small and medium-sized manufacturing firms fell to -32 in the three months ending in October. It is compared with -28 in the three months to July.
Companies have reported weak new orders – especially from UK customers – and a lack of enthusiasm to increase capital spending. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD returns to the 1.2880 area. Also, it is reversing a decline to 1.2869 the lowest level which is in early transactions. In the meantime, the US dollar has retreated four-day highs to 98.01 against its main competitors.
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