GBPUSD slightly bids above 1.2900. Recent polls, the media appearances of the Conservative Party suggest that the Conservatives are losing glory. US and UK activity figures, as well as trade/political headlines, will be further boosted. Here is the GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis of 02 December, 2019.
02 December, 2019 | AtoZ Markets – GBPUSD is looking for a new direction as it trades near 1.2915 ahead of the London opening on Monday. That said, the pair seems to be paying a bit of attention to the political games. That is surrounding the UK election ahead of the key Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis – 02 December 2019
The absence of British PM Boris Johnson in the ITV’s seven-party debate weighed on the representatives of the Conservative Party in power during the talks. The Independent suggests it. This is in addition to the mixed scenario presented by recent polls concerning the December elections. The observer indicates that the gap between the ruling Conservatives and the main opposition Labor Party has decreased by four points since last week. However, a Savanta ComRes poll shows a two-point lead by the Conservatives during the same period.
While trying to overcome the odds, the British Prime Minister Johnson managed to overcome any humiliation in the BBC’s interview with Andrew Marr. However, the opposition Labor Party is also doing its best. And it is pledging the most significant plan to reduce rail fares in England, according to The Guardian. The terrorist attack on the London Bridge is also something both parties are trying to take advantage of.
“An absolute conservative majority would likely see Prime Minister Johnson able to adopt his Brexit deal. It is a reference scenario before the end of the year (probably pound bullish).” Prime Minister Johnson said the British Parliament would be summoned on 17 December, if he obtains a majority and the Queen’s speech. That indicates the official start of a new government, will take place on 19 December.
If it is another government, the Queen’s speech is expected in January. This means that, hypothetically, a Brexit agreement could be passed in the House of Commons before Christmas and well before the 31 January deadline.
US China Trade and Manufacturing PMI
On the other hand, the doubts about the phase-one agreement between the United States (US) and China weigh on the US dollar (USD). However, China’s recent positive activity data reinforce the sentiment of risk.
Trade/political headlines will keep the driver’s seat. But the data from November’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the United States and the United Kingdom may offer intermediate moves. Among them, the British Manufacturing PMI, expected at 48.3. It will be the first to exceed the Markit and ISM US activity indices. The Markit PMI may remain unchanged at 52.2, but the ISM manufacturing PMI could rise from 45.5 to 49.9.
Think we missed something? Let us know in the comments section below.