UK Prelim GDP and Fundamental forecast for 27th January



Fundamental forecast,USD,GBP,AUDUK’s Prelim GDP q/q
was just released, showing a modest expansion in economy as the figure was released at 0.5% missing economists’ forecast of 0.6%, showing a contraction in production and construction.

National Australia Bank Business Confidence shows two consecutive months of falling business conditions. The January figure came out at 2 showing that aggregate conditions are around average, compared to 12 posted in October which showed very high Business confidence. But the NAB said that “the strong result for business conditions in October now clearly looks to be an anomaly.”

UK’s Prelim GDP q/q was just released, showing a modest expansion in economy as the figure was released at 0.5% missing economists’ forecast of 0.6%, showing a contraction in production and construction. It was closely watched today, being the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health as it measures change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It was forecast to be slightly down to 0.6% for the last quarter of 2014, expected to add pressure to the weak pound which has lost about 500 pips to the dollar in the month so far with disappointing unemployment figures and existing home sales missing expectations. GBPUSD found support around 1.49500 last week. The worse than expected release could drive the pair back down towards this low. British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals is also scheduled for release today. This figure has consistently misted estimates for about five months and is forecast to fall slightly to 36.6k compared to last month’s figures.

The Economic and Financial Affairs Council meetings involve the Eurozone’s broadest financial decision making body. Though the meeting is closed to the press, we expect to get good hints on the discussion to be released in a formal statement after the meeting. This may give good insight into other European financial leaders opinion about the newly announced Quantitative easing and the Greek situation.

U.S Core Durable Goods Orders m/m which values change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. It has been negative for the past 3 monthsfalling below expectation. An increase of 0.6% is expected this month. The rise in autos and non-defense aircraft was overshadowed by a sharp drop in defense aircraft orders in December. Both Durable orders and Core orders are expected to gain 0.6%. CB Consumer Confidence in December fell below forecast of 94.6, released at 92.6 compared, although was better than the previous of 91. This showed slight improvement in in household’s confidence in economic conditions. The January figure is expected at 95.3 which depict a further potential increment in household confidence. New Home Sales is forecast to be released at 452k which will be the highest level recorded over the last quarter as the last three months have fallen below forecast. New home sales still remain far under the peak annual levels of 700,000 seen during the 1990s.

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