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Amandeep Sonewane

20 April 2017

Forex Technical analysis

French Election Euro impact infographic: scenarios to watch


After months of polls and campaigning, the euro is stronger by 1 percent for the year. Here is the French Election Euro impact infographic.

19 April, AtoZForex – With only a few days to go before Sunday’s first-round presidential election, the polls are showing a close race between the four candidates in France. The elections could shake up the European financial markets next week. Two anti-European Union candidates have a serious chance of making it into the final runoff round on May 7. This is raising the fears that this could be the beginning of the end for the eurozone.

French Election Euro impact infographic

From all the anxiety over political risks, the euro is stronger by 1 percent for the year, around $1.06 to the dollar. The traders has little interest to sell the euro below $1.06 as that level reflects a trend line drawn off the January and March lows.

Some analysts also predicted that the election risk would be even higher for Euro versus Yen. In recent weeks, the euro has dropped 6 percent from Yen 122 and touched Yen 116. In turn, one-month volatility for the currency pair rose to its highest point since 2011. Moreover, a similar volatility measure for the EURUSD has also climbed beyond last June’s after Brexit.


The bond market is also in a risk due to the political instability. The relationship between the 10-year French and German yields back above 70 basis points. Such an outcome would only shore up sentiment towards the eurozone. Already, the money increasingly shifts towards Europe as some global investors rotate from costly valued US shares. This seems supporting the Euro, with the political focus shifting towards Germany’s elections.


The French election in 5 graphics

The four candidates for the French election- Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Francois Fillon, Jean-Luc Melenchon, where the latest poll shows the identical results. But Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is somehow leading the polls.


Now, the question arises - Who has the chance of winning the elections? and Which candidate is more popular among the Jews?

What are the achievements to date? 

Emmanuel Macron: Without a party or real political experience, he has survived two smear campaigns. A fake Russian report on his alleged ties with Rothschild Bank and rumors that he is gay.

Marine Le Pen: Many people in her own party think she ran a catastrophic campaign. But, yet she's maintaining her place in the polls. She also obtained the support of her father, the party founder.

Jean-Luc Melenchon: After a long illustrious political career, he managed to persuade voters, most of them are young, that he repents change. He has positioned himself as a viable candidate without hiding his radicalness.

Francois Fillon: Turning a smear campaign against him into a political advantage, he took Le Pen's place as the victim of the media, the legal elite, and the national assembly.

What is the Strategy for the final week? 

Macron: Plans to appear at more than 100 campaign rallies throughout France with a simple message: ''I'm the only candidate whose election can prevent utter chaos.

Le Pen: She has resumed her focus on immigration as an existential threat to France. She also claims that the arrest of two terrorists in Marseilles was part of a conspiracy to silence her.

Melenchon: He plans to rob Le Pen of anti- establishment voters and Macron of leftist voters frightened by his choice to court right-wing voters.

Fillon: He will don his presidential look and focus on defense, ignoring the weakness of economic policy and Macron;s clear advantage over him.

What do you think about the French Election Euro impact infographic? Let us know in the comments section below.

Marine Le Pen French election EURUSD impact French election Emmanuel Macron

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