05 April, AtoZForex, London – The strategy team at Barclays Capital has shared its analysis for five major currency pairs and its March FOMC minutes forecast. The following is Barclays FOMC minutes forecast & Forex analysis for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD, and USDCAD.
March FOMC minutes forecast
In line with the March FOMC minutes preview and interest rate expectations from several investment banks, Barclays foresees the minutes to provide a clue whether the March policy statement, which once again refrained from characterizing the balance of risks, represents a compromise between the more dovish Chair and somewhat hawkish committee members.
“We look to the minutes of the March FOMC meeting to provide context for the surprisingly dovish policy statement and downward revision to the median path of the dots,” Barclays projected.
EURUSD: Starting Barclays analysis with the Euro, the investment bank has turned bearish following subsequent ‘Doji’ topping candle formations. “A low close today would encourage our bearish view towards initial targets near 1.1290 and then the 1.1220 area (near the 21 day moving average),” Barclays added.
GBPUSD: Moving on, the Cable has not changed since yesterday. Barclays remains bearish and looks for a move lower in range towards the initial targets near 1.4050 area. A break below the 1.4050 would confirm lower towards the 1.3835 year to date low.
USDCHF: Meanwhile, the strategy team also sees scope lower for US Dollar – Swiss Franc, “we are bearish and look for a move below our initial downside targets near 0.9550 to signal a squeeze lower towards our next targets in the 0.9475 area.”
NZDUSD: Turning to commodity currencies, low close at the start of the week has endorsed prior topping candles and encouraged Barclays to re-establish its bearish view on the Kiwi. The investment bank now targets the 0.6670 area and then expects the pair to move lower towards 0.6545.
USDCAD: Finishing Barclays FOMC minutes forecast & Forex analysis, the outlook for Loonie has not changes. “We prefer to fade upticks above 1.3165, near the 21-dma and look for the recent range highs near 1.3300 to cap a move lower towards initial targets in the 1.2830 area,” Barclays noted. Beyond the area opens room towards 1.2670 level.
Also see: Bullish EUR factors & return of Grexit
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