Expectations into NFP – BofA


01 November, AtoZForex.com, London – Going into October Non-Farm Employment Change, scheduled on Friday, BofA Merrill Lynch anticipates an improvement of 150,000 despite a consensus of 179k.

BofA data forecast

News Expectation Cnsensus Range September
Non-farm Payrolls 150k 180k 135k – 215k 142k
Private Payrolls 165k 165k 125 – 207k 118k
Unemployment Rate 5.10% 5.10% 4.9% – 5.3% 5.10%
Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.20% 0.20% 0.2% – 0.4% 0.00%
Avg. Weekly Hours 34.5 34.5 34.5 – 34.6 34.5

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg

In terms of revisions, the major bank has found tendency for September and August payrolls to be revised higher. Therefore, there we might see a stronger trend in the 3-month moving average.

In addition to the important data prints, the week will be busy with the Fed and the ECB speeches combining into a critical week for EURUSD currency pair.

Investors will be listening for any US interest rate hike indications in the tone of FOMC members. Throughout the week, we will have speaking Fed Presidents Williams (voter), George and Harker (non-voters), Chair Yellen (speaking on regulations), as well as Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley.

Going into NFP, “it really will be about Fed speakers and one can only assume the message will be similar to last night’s statement – something along the lines of ‘show us why we shouldn’t now raise rates,” BTMU projects.

BTMU has turned bearish on EURUSD going into the next week; expecting the major pair to trade bound by 1.08 – 1.12 range.

Consider reading the following article: MS trade of the week

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