EURUSD is consolidating above the 1.1 handle. The following EURUSD Elliott wave analysis November 12 update looks at what could happen next.
November 12, 2019 | AtoZ Markets – The Euro-dollar currency pair has been trading with very little momentum since the start of this week. This is largely due to the bank holidays in the US. The market bottomed at 1.1016 last week following a fast dip from 1.1175. It topped at 1.104 on Monday but has started Tuesday rather bearish albeit slow. The US-China trade deal remains a major concern despite the upbeat tones from the two parties. President Trump will speak today in New York. Investors will want to know about the progress of the trade talks.
If the President talks about the US-China trade deal situation, we might see some big moves. Last week, he rejected the reports that previous tariffs are being withdrawn. The USD quickly recovered against all the majors as a result of this. This might continue if he sounds overly dovish thus giving buying power to risk-off assets. EURUSD might, therefore, decline deeper toward the 1.088 low. If on the other hand, he sounds very upbeat, we might see this currency advance above the 1.107 resistance level to 1.111 and 1.1175 resistance levels.
EURUSD Elliott wave analysis November 11 update
After completing a double top pattern at 1.1175, EURUSD broke below the neckline at 1.1070. This also indicated that the dip should go deeper. In the last update, we expected that the price would challenge the 1.088 support level if 1.1070 is broken downside. On the larger scale, the current bearish run started on February 2018 and has taken far more time than expected thanks to the geopolitical instabilities and the economic depression in the Euro-zone. The chart below looks at the wave formation from 1.255 top (chart used from TradingView)
The chart above shows the EURUSD Elliott wave analysis November 12 update. The bearish run is clearly completing an impulse wave. However, the 5th wave is becoming extended. At some time in November 2018 and April 2019, we thought the 5th wave had ended at 1.1215 and 1.111 respectively. However, the price only followed up with minor rallies and then continued downside. The last low was formed at 1.088. It now seems the 5th wave will complete an ending diagonal pattern below 1.088. Resistance levels at 1.1175 and 1.142 are expected to hold firm. From the next updates, we will start looking at the sub-waves of wave (v) which are expected to complete three swings downside.