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EURUSD Analysis: Euro stabilizes around 1.15 awaiting bearish signal?

Sanmi Adeagbo | Oct. 8, 2018
EURUSD Analysis: Euro stabilizes around 1.15 awaiting bearish signal?

EURUSD has dropped to 1.15 and looks to be supported there. There was no breakout last Friday despite a high deviated employment data from the U.S. U.S banks are closed today to observe Columbus day. Will price break below 1.15?

EURUSD is still bearish. Last week, price was drawn below 1.15 briefly before it stabilizes and stays around same level. Volatility is expected to be low today as U.S banks are closed to observe Columbus day. EURUSD bounced to 1.164 last week as part of a bearish impulse wave drive from 1.185. The following day, price was supported at 1.15 and another bounce followed to 1.1595 after the Italian budget deficit report. Ahead of the last NFP data release, price returned from 1.146 to 1.154 and has stabilized around 1.15 after the data. Market is expected to be less liquid today as speculators become a more dominant market influence.

EURUSD Technical Overview and Important Price levels

In the last update, before the NFP, we had two scenarios. The second scenario labelled the price bounce to 1.154 as the 4th wave of the bearish impulse wave from 1.18. The chart below was used in the last update.

This scenario assumes the bearish impulse wave is not yet complete. The current rally is the 4th wave and price gets one more leg downside. This scenario should be given serious consideration as there is no notable bullish reversal signal yet. If price breaks below the wave 4 rising channel, a drop to 1.15 is very likely. Price may not be rejected this time around as their might be a strong bearish trigger to take it down to 1.145-1.14 before the next bullish bounce.

After the last update, price dropped below the wave 4 channel and decline further to 1.1464. Price bounced back above 1.15 and has stayed around it, post-NFP. The chart below shows the new update.

The chart below shows price bounce from 1.1460 to 1.1550. The bullish momentum lacks strength to push price ahead as it now points downside, below the 1.15 support. In the larger degree, 1.15 and 1.13 are the two most significant support levels. If price breaks below 1.15, the next target is 1.13. Upside, 1.155 and 1.1595 are important intraday resistance levels while 1.17-1.18 is the most important larger degree resistance zone. A break below 1.1480-1.1460 intraday support levels could lead to more bearish move as price aims 1.13.

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