EURUSD Analysis: EURO Advances to 1.16 after Core Retail Sales Data

EURUSD has resumed last week gain after the end-of-week dip. Price is now attempting to break above last week's 1.161 high.

EURUSD gaped at market opening this week after the Bavarian poll. Price quickly recovered from 1.153 support where it dropped to. Since the recovery, Euro has resumed upside after a less than expected U.S retail sales data that was released right before the opening of the New York market session. Retail sales came at 0.1 m/m far less than the consensus 0.7% and the core retail sales came at -0.1% against the 0.4% market expectation. EURUSD is now close to breaking above 1.1610 resistance level.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis and Important Levels

In the last EURUSD Elliott wave analysis update, we expected a bullish correction far above 1.1610. While we admitted that a bullish recovery would continue, we also expected a bearish sub-correction within the expected larger bullish correction. The chart below was used in the last update

The bullish correction from 1.143 might have completed its first leg – wave a (circled). A dip to 1.154 (closest intraday support) might happen before price returns upside to 1.1625-1.17. 1.154 and 1.143 are the important support levels while 1.1625-1.167 are important price levels upside. At 1.18-1.1815, there is a major resistance zone. It will require a huge volatility to break above the 1.18-1.1815 today. It's sufficient to say that with today's events, price might get needed momentum to accelerate or drop massively.

Price did as expected last week. The second leg of the expected bullish correction ended just above 1.153 and price resumed upside this week. The chart below shows the new update.

With the current bullish resurgence, it's sufficient to say wave B (circled) has completed. Wave C has already started and would be confirmed once price breaks above 1.1610. There are three important Fibonacci levels clustered between 1.1650-1.1716. If the bullish run continues, price would be expected to play around this zone. If the bullish momentum gets stronger and breaks above 1.1716 up to 1.1750, the rally from 1.143 might end up being an impulse wave. Otherwise, price will be expected to be resisted below 1.1750 and re-start the larger bearish move.

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